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Detection of anticipated structural changes in a rational expectations environment

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  • Luis Uzeda
  • Callum Jones

Abstract

When agents have rational expectations, anticipated changes in the structure of the economy have an immediate affect on their behaviour. In this article, we investigate the interplay between a linear rational expectation model with predictable structural changes and reduced-form evidence of structural breaks. In our study, we vary the length of time between the announcement and the implementation of an inflation target change. Using a model similar to Ireland (2007) and the method presented in Bai and Perron (1998) and Bai and Perron (2003) to estimate unknown structural breaks, Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that reduced-form evidence of structural breaks are broadly in line with what is predicted by forward-looking rational expectation models; that is, as the transition period increases, break estimates gradually move farther from the policy announcement date.

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  • Luis Uzeda & Callum Jones, 2013. "Detection of anticipated structural changes in a rational expectations environment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1322-1327, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:14:p:1322-1327
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.791033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    2. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    3. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2024. "Testing rational expectations in a cointegrated VAR with structural change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

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