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Citations for "A real-time data set for macroeconomists"

by Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom

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  1. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Götz T.B. & Hecq A.W. & Urbain J.R.Y.J., 2014. "Combining distributions of real-time forecasts: An application to U.S. growth," Research Memorandum 027, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  3. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
  4. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy mistakes and the evolution of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
  7. Dean Croushore, 2010. "Philadelphia Fed forecasting surveys: their value for research," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 1-11.
  8. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 13089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. María-Dolores, Ramón & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús & Londoño Yarce, Juan Miguel, 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," DFAEII Working Papers 2012-05, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  10. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
  12. Seth Pruitt, 2012. "Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 341-365, 03.
  13. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Forecasting and tracking real-time data revisions in inflation persistence," MPRA Paper 34439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  15. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  16. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
  18. Guender, Alfred V., 2002. "Optimal and efficient monetary policy rules in a forward-looking model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-49, March.
  19. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 455-467.
  21. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  22. Coenen, Guenter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  24. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  26. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  27. Macaro, Christian, 2008. "The impact of vintage on the persistence of gross domestic product shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 301-308, March.
  28. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
  29. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  30. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Real-time data revisions and the PCE measure of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1763-1773, July.
  31. Charles Weise, 2004. "Alternative explanations for US inflation performance, 1961-2000," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 111, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  32. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  33. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  34. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  35. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts," Discussion Papers 06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  36. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Norman R. Swanson & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release, and Forecasting," Departmental Working Papers 201113, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  38. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  39. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
  40. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  41. Christian Macaro, 2007. "The Impact of Vintage on the Persistence of Gross Domestic Product Shocks," CEIS Research Paper 101, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  42. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  43. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  44. Leonard Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2005. "Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate," Working Papers 05-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  45. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  46. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  47. Vermeulen, Philip, 2012. "Quantifying the qualitative responses of the output purchasing managers index in the US and the Euro area," Working Paper Series 1417, European Central Bank.
  48. Christis Tombazos, 2003. "New light on the 'impressionistic view' of the balancing item in Australia's balance of payments accounts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1369-1378.
  49. Enders, Walter & Im, Kyung So & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2010. "IV threshold cointegration tests and the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1463-1472, November.
  50. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  51. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  52. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
  53. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 1218, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  54. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
  55. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  56. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MPRA Paper 13498, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
  57. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  58. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Herrmann, Heinz & Orphanides, Athanasios & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "Real-time data and monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-276, December.
  60. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 2001. "Let's Get "Real"" about Using Economic Data"," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-44, CIRANO.
  61. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  62. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Vasile Dinu, 2009. "How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 675-683, November.
  63. Evan Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  64. Vrugt, Evert B., 2009. "U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 611-627, November.
  65. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  66. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0842, Econometric Society.
  67. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  68. Claudia Arguedas Gonzales, 2004. "Las tasas de interés en moneda nacional y la inflación: una revisión de la Hipótesis de Fisher para Bolivia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 325-341, octubre-d.
  69. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
  70. Yu, Xiangrong, 2013. "Measurement error and policy evaluation in the frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 307-329.
  71. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  72. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
  73. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
  74. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
  76. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
  77. Ince, Onur & Papell, David H., 2013. "The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 713-721.
  78. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  79. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał & Skrzypczyński, Paweł, 2009. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test," Working Paper Series 1110, European Central Bank.
  80. Jesús Vázquez & Ramón María-Dolores & Juan-Miguel Londoño, 2009. "On the informational role of term structure in the U.S. monetary policy rule," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0919, Banco de Espa�a.
  81. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/24, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  82. Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  83. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 371-382.
  84. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
  85. Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "Greenspan and the Greenbook," Economics Working Paper Archive 472, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  86. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  87. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers 8194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  88. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  89. María-Dolores, Ramon & Vazquez, Jesus & Londoño, Juan M., 2009. "Extending the New Keynesian Monetary Model with Information Revision Processes: Real-time and Revised Data," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 4695, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
  90. Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 74, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  91. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 0846, European Central Bank.
  92. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  93. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2011. "Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE models," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1104, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  94. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
  95. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA.
  97. Clements, Michael P, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 956, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  98. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
  99. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  100. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
  101. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  102. Michael P Clements, 2014. "Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-12, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  103. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Papers 0021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  104. Naoko Hara & Hibiki Ichiue, 2010. "Real-time Analysis on Japan's Labor Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-7, Bank of Japan.
  105. Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  106. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  107. Shaun P. Vahey & Andreas Pick & Don M. Egginton, 2001. ""Keep it real!": A real-time UK macro data set," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(18), pages A0.
  108. Tom Stark, 2010. "Realistic evaluation of real-time forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May.
  109. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
  110. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  111. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  112. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  113. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
  114. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  115. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S80-S96, October.
  116. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," CAMA Working Papers 2010-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  117. Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  118. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  119. Shaun Vahey & Tony Garratt, 2005. "UK Real-time Macro Data Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 253, Society for Computational Economics.
  120. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  121. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  122. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  123. Bermingham, Colin, 2006. "An Examination of Data Revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  124. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38.
  125. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  126. Rebeca de la Rocque Palis & Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos & Patrice Robitaille, 2004. "News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 776, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  127. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
  128. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  129. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  130. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
  131. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "The Taylor principle, interest rate smoothing and Fed policy in the 1970s and 1980s," Working Paper 02-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  132. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Price Dividend Ratio Factors : Proxies for Long Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  133. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  134. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  135. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0617, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  136. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
  137. Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Paper 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  138. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
  139. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  140. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yiyao Wang, 2014. "Asymmetric Loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 201407, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  141. Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Cross-border Listings, Capital Controls, and Equity Flows To Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 12589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  142. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun, 2010. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  143. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  144. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 46642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  145. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
  146. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  147. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2012. "Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles," Research Report 12010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  148. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity," Working Papers 07-58, Bank of Canada.
  149. Lupi, Claudio & Peracchi, Franco, 2003. "The limits of statistical information: How important are GDP revisions in Italy?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03005, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  150. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
  151. Tortorice Daniel Louis, 2012. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, January.
  152. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
  153. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  154. repec:urv:wpaper:2072/15810 is not listed on IDEAS
  155. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  156. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  157. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  158. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
  159. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  160. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
  161. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2014. "Improving the Reliability of Real-time Hodrick-Prescott Filtering Using Survey Forecasts," KOF Working papers 14-360, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  162. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  163. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  164. Rodriguez Mora, Jose V. & Schulstad, Paul, 2007. "The effect of GNP announcements on fluctuations of GNP growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1922-1940, November.
  165. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  166. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo Group Munich.
  167. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
  168. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
  169. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2011. "Policy analysis in real time using IMF's monetary model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1696-1709, July.
  170. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  171. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas Pearce, 2010. "Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 196-217, April.
  172. David Kiefer, 2011. "Targets, Policy Lags and Sticky Prices in a Two-Equation Model of US Stabilization Policy," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2011_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  173. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  174. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2014. "Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post," Working Papers 14-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  175. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper 17856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  176. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2011. "Data revisions in India: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 164-173, April.
  177. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature," Working Papers 11-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  178. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  179. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  180. Croushore, Dean, 2004. "Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  181. Perez, Stephen J., 2001. "Looking back at forward-looking monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 509-521.
  182. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
  183. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
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  185. Croushore, Dean & Marsten, Katherine, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  186. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2009. "On the Use of Density Forecasts to Identify Asymmetry in Forecasters' Loss Functions," Discussion Papers 09-03, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  187. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  188. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Rafael, 2014. "Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 981-995.
  189. Calvin Price, 2008. "Recession dating and real-time data," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jun.
  190. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  191. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  192. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  193. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
  194. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  195. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  196. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009. "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper 22409, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2010.
  197. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  198. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
  199. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  200. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  201. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  202. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  203. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  204. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Working papers 157, Banque de France.
  205. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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  207. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
  208. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  209. Robert J. Tetlow, 2015. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: "Robust" Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 113-155, March.
  210. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  211. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  212. Jui-Chung Yang & Ke-Li Xu, 2013. "Estimation and Inference under Weak Identi cation and Persistence: An Application on Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Reaction Function," 2013 Papers pya307, Job Market Papers.
  213. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
  214. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  215. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  216. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  217. Christopher G. Gibbs, 2015. "Overcoming the Forecast Combination Puzzle: Lessons from the Time-Varying Effciency of Phillips Curve Forecasts of U.S. Inflation," Discussion Papers 2015-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  218. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Forecasting coin demand," Working Papers 02-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  219. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," Working Papers 5, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  220. William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2000. "Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?," Working Papers 2000-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  221. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  222. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
  223. Fischer, Carolyn & Herrnstadt, Evan & Morgenstern, Richard, 2009. "Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 198-209, August.
  224. Flodberg, Caroline & Österholm, Pär, 2015. "A Statistical Analysis of Revisions of Swedish National Accounts Data," Working Paper 136, National Institute of Economic Research.
  225. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, 08.
  226. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  227. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
  228. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2011. "Some variables are more worthy than others: new diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 43-60.
  229. Miguel de Carvalho & António Rua, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  230. Bermingham, Colin, 2006. "A Look at Data Revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 93-105, July.
  231. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2011. "Zur Stabilität von Saisonbereinigungsverfahren: Eine Echtzeitdaten-Analyse am Beispiel BV4.1 und X-12-ARIMA," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, August.
  232. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
  233. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow (July 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-03, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  234. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  235. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2009. "Testing for Common Autocorrelation in Data Rich Environments," CEIS Research Paper 153, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Dec 2009.
  236. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 521-536.
  237. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  238. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
  239. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  240. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  241. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
  242. Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
  243. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  244. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
  245. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  246. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
  247. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
  248. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  249. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
  250. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  251. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
  252. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  253. Riccardo M. Masolo & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with Data Revisions," Discussion Papers 1510, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  254. Rafael Cusinato & André Minella & Sabino Silva Pôrto Júnior, 2013. "Output gap in Brazil: a real-time data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1113-1127, June.
  255. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235 Bank for International Settlements.
  256. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2010. "Learning about informational rigidities from sectoral data and diffusion indices," Working Paper 10-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  257. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "Extracting GDP signals from the monthly indicator of economic activity: Evidence from Chilean real-time data," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-16.
  258. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
  259. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
  260. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
  261. Alessandro Borin & Riccardo Cristadoro & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2012. "Forecasting world output: the rising importance of emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 853, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  262. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  263. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
  264. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  265. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  266. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  267. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  268. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "Data Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 131, Society for Computational Economics.
  269. Yash P. Mehra, 2001. "The Taylor principle, interest rate smoothing and Fed policy in the 1970s and the 1980s," Working Paper 01-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  270. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Weiss, Matthew A., 2011. "Forecast errors before and during the Great Moderation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 278-289, July.
  271. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  272. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "¿De qué forma afectan las revisiones de datos a la evaluación y conducción de la política monetaria?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 369-405, octubre-d.
  273. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  274. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.