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Citations for "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations"

by Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W

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  1. Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 80-94, 01.
  3. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
  4. Dées, Stéphane & Holly, Sean & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series 0750, European Central Bank.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 342-358, August.
  7. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing Parameter Constancy in Unit Root Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 579, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Feb 2005.
  8. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  9. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
  10. Sensier, Marianne & Dick van Dijk, 2002. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 164, Royal Economic Society.
  11. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  12. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
  13. Kocenda, Evzen, 2000. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable since the Crisis?," Working Paper 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  15. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
  16. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
  18. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
  19. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 0802, European Central Bank.
  20. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
  21. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  22. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 12824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  24. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2009. "Anchors for Inflation Expectations," DNB Working Papers 229, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  25. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2307-2318, September.
  27. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2013. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2013-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  28. repec:wyi:journl:002213 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Wendy Nyakabawo & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U. S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working Papers 201329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  30. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Cyclical Uncertainty And Physical Investment Decisions," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 89, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  31. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  32. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  33. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," Economics Series 2011_1, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  34. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  35. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Kleiber, Christian & Hornik, Kurt, 2002. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Technical Reports 2002,07, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  37. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
  39. Tae-Hwy Lee & Weiping Yang, 2014. "Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles," Working Papers 201423, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  40. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
  41. Jorge Selaive ; Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
  42. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  43. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Instability and Non-Linearity in the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 3312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  46. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  47. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  48. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Regime Shift in Antitrust," MPRA Paper 5460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, 03.
  50. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Housing and the Great Depression," Working papers 2012-47, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  51. Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_59, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  52. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  53. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
  54. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  55. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  56. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo Group Munich.
  57. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2013. "Modelling electricity demand in Ghana revisited: The role of policy regime changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 42-50.
  58. Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  59. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  60. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005.
  61. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Charl Jooste, Guangling (Dave) Liu and Ruthira Naraidoo, 2013. "Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy," Working Papers 351, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  63. Agostino Consolo, 2006. "Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2006-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Nov 2006.
  64. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  65. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  66. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
  67. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
  68. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  69. Ferrara, L. & Marcellino, M. & Mogliani, M., 2012. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," Working papers 383, Banque de France.
  70. Achim Zeileis & Torsten Hothorn, 2013. "A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 931-954, November.
  71. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  72. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  73. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  74. Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  76. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  77. Raul Ramos & Miquel Clar & Jordi Suri?ach, 1998. "Specialization in Europe and asymmetric shocks: Potential risks of EMU," ERSA conference papers ersa98p86, European Regional Science Association.
  78. Bunzel, Helle & Iglesias, Emma M., 2006. "Testing for Breaks Using Alternating Observations," Staff General Research Papers 12694, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  79. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," MPRA Paper 53684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Khiabani, Nasser, 2010. "How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran," MPRA Paper 34041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2011.
  81. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
  82. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  83. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227, April.
  84. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 553-574, August.
  85. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
  86. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  87. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  88. Albis, Manuel Leonard F. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates in Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive (AVAR) Models," MPRA Paper 55902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  89. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  90. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
  91. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  92. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, 01.
  93. Li, Hong, 2008. "Estimation and testing of Euler equation models with time-varying reduced-form coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 425-448, January.
  94. Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
  95. Amado Peiró, 2002. "Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  96. Chew Lian Chua & Chin Nam Low, 2007. "Permanent Structural Change in the US Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  97. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
  98. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  99. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  100. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  101. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  102. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2626, CESifo Group Munich.
  103. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2013. "A note on exact correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 139-142.
  104. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  105. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2003. "Least Squares Estimation and Tests of Breaks in Mean and Variance under Misspecification," Econometrics 0312004, EconWPA.
  106. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Largescale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Departmental Working Papers 201105, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  107. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
  108. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  109. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  110. Bakhodir A Ergashev, 2004. "Sequential Detection of US Business Cycle Turning Points: Performances of Shiryayev-Roberts, CUSUM and EWMA Procedures," Econometrics 0402001, EconWPA, revised 16 Mar 2004.
  111. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  112. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  113. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  114. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  115. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
  116. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  117. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  118. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  119. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
  120. Peter Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1233, Society for Computational Economics.
  121. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Working Paper Series 0718, European Central Bank.
  122. Eo, Yunjong, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 13910, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2009.
  123. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  124. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  125. repec:cty:dpaper:12/02 is not listed on IDEAS
  126. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
  127. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2010. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," IWH Discussion Papers 19, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  128. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
  129. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  130. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
  131. Gavin, William T. & Kemme, David M., 2009. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 868-879, September.
  132. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
  133. Eo, Yunjong, 2012. "Bayesian Inference about the Types of Structural Breaks When There are Many Breaks," Working Papers 2012-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  134. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(05), pages 957-991, October.
  135. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  136. Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  137. Don Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  138. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
  139. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
  140. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2013. "Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 153-170.
  141. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Luiz Ivan de Melo Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian Gdp Growth Rate With Linear And Nonlinear Diffusion Index Models," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  142. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
  143. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  144. D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  145. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  146. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2014. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1799-1851, 09.
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  153. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1409, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
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  160. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
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  164. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  165. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  166. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  167. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  170. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 203-230.
  171. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of coefficient instability in dynamic regressions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 836, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  172. Philip Rothman, 2000. "Review of Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series, by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry," Working Papers 0016, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
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  176. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.
  177. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  179. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  180. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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  182. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  183. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  184. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association.
  185. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  186. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
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  188. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  189. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  190. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, . "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  191. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
  192. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  193. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, . "Break date estimation for models with deterministic structural change," Discussion Papers 13/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  194. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, EconWPA.
  195. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  196. Peter H. Sullivan, 2013. "Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies?," 2013 Papers psu387, Job Market Papers.
  197. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
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  199. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
  200. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  201. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  202. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
  203. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn’t in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  204. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
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  207. Michael A. Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Discussion Paper Series 324, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  208. Ghosal, Vivek, 2006. "Discovering Cartels: Dynamic Interrelationships between Civil and Criminal Antitrust Investigations," MPRA Paper 5499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.