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The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

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Cited by:

  1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
  2. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  4. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
  5. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
  6. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
  7. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
  8. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
  9. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
  11. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  12. Abayomi T. Onanuga & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Adenike M. Osoba, 2016. "Uncertainty of Output Gap and Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(5), pages 227-237, OCTOBER.
  13. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  15. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
  16. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  17. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
  18. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 867-901.
  19. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_014 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Val鲩e Chouard & Daniel Fuentes Castro & Delphine Irac & Matthieu Lemoine, 2014. "Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(23), pages 2711-2720, August.
  22. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
  23. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
  24. Mateusz Machaj, 2016. "Can the Taylor Rule be a Good Guidance for Policy? The Case of 2001-2008 Real Estate Bubble," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 381-395.
  25. Valle e Azevedo, João & Pereira, Ana, 2013. "Approximating and forecasting macroeconomic signals in real-time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 479-492.
  26. Timothy Irwin & Oscar Parkyn, 2009. "Improving the Management of the Crown’s Exposure to Risk," Treasury Working Paper Series 09/06, New Zealand Treasury.
  27. G. Farrell, 2016. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Real-Time Credit-To-GDP Gap Estimates: A South African Perspective," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, April.
  28. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
  29. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 449-483, February.
  30. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
  31. repec:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:1:p:87-101 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Rodrigo De-Losso, 2012. "Did The Taylor Rule Stabilize Inflation in Brazil?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  33. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  34. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Écart de production dans la zone euro. Une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 173-202.
  35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2128 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Morley, James & Rodríguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  37. Koichiro Kamada & Ichiro Muto, 2000. "Forward-looking Models and Monetary Policy in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
  38. James Mitchell & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  39. Keinsley, Andrew, 2016. "Indexing the income tax code, monetary/fiscal interaction, and the great moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-20.
  40. Troy Davig & Michael Redmond, 2014. "Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-28.
  41. Planas, C. & Roeger, W. & Rossi, A., 2013. "The information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 577-590.
  42. Pranjal Rawat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Is there evidence for Asymmetric Preferences?," Working Papers 2020-196, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  43. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
  44. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
  45. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
  46. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  47. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
  48. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
  49. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation," Working Papers 2010.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  50. Tortorice Daniel Louis, 2012. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, January.
  51. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
  52. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010. "Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  53. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  54. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
  55. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
  56. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
  57. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  58. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "La croissance européenne perturbée par un cycle de courte période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 83-100.
  59. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
  60. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  61. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  62. Ramis Khabibullin & Sergei Seleznev, 2022. "Fast Estimation of Bayesian State Space Models Using Amortized Simulation-Based Inference," Papers 2210.07154, arXiv.org.
  63. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "On the Model-Based Interpretation of Filters and the Reliability of Trend-Cycle Estimates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 186-208.
  64. Lucian Croitoru, 2016. "Are We Systematically Wrong when Estimating Potential Output and the Natural Rate of Interest?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 128-151, June.
  65. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
  66. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
  67. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  68. Bauer, Christian & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2017. "Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 99-116.
  69. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:573:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
  72. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
  73. Anindya Biswas, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140, September.
  74. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2017. "The relevance and relative robustness of sources of inflation bias in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 283-303.
  75. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
  76. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
  77. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
  78. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
  79. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  80. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
  81. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
  82. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Post-Print halshs-01821825, HAL.
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  85. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
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  91. Graham, Liam & Wright, Stephen, 2010. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 164-174, March.
  92. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
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  103. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Fioramanti & Cecilia Frale & Libero Monteforte, 2020. "A Systemic Approach to Estimating the Output Gap for the Italian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 465-493, September.
  104. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
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  124. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
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  131. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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