IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login

Citations for "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time"

by Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window

  1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Wakerly, Elizabeth C & Elena Loukoianova & Shaun P. Vahey, 2003. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 215, Royal Economic Society.
  3. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2001. "UK Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The Role of Output Gap Mismeasurement," CEPR Discussion Papers 2999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Pär Österholm, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditionson Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund.
  5. repec:eco:journ1:2014-04-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MPRA Paper 13498, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
  7. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  8. Dan Corry & Anna Valero & John Van Reenen, 2011. "UK economic performance since 1997: growth, productivity and jobs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 47521, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-39.
  11. Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2011. "How does the FOMC learn about economic revolutions? evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001," Working Papers 2011-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Valle e Azevedo, João, 2008. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," MPRA Paper 6555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Perry, Guillermo & Serven, Luis, 2003. "The anatomy of a multiple crisis : why was Argentina special and what can we learn from it?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3081, The World Bank.
  14. Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
  15. Issing, O., 2003. "La politique monétaire dans un environnement incertain," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 113, pages 28-44.
  16. Valérie Chouard & Daniel Fuentes Castro & Delphine Irac & Matthieu Lemoine, 2014. "Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(23), pages 2711-2720, August.
  17. Charles Steindel, 2009. "Implications of the financial crisis for potential growth: past, present, and future," Staff Reports 408, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2010. "Estimating potential output using business survey data in a svar framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2249-2258.
  19. Michael Graff, 2006. "Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 529–577, December.
  20. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  21. Y. Adema, 2003. "A taylor rule for the euro area based on quasi-real time data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 738, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  22. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  23. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
  24. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2013. "Is monetary policy overburdened?," Public Policy Discussion Paper 13-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  25. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  26. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
  27. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 38, Society for Computational Economics.
  28. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  29. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2002. "Activist stabilization policy and inflation: The Taylor rule in the 1970s," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  30. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2014. "Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment," Kiel Working Papers 1908, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  31. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 57770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Guenter Beck & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest rate rules," Working Paper Research 147, National Bank of Belgium.
  33. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  34. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique
    [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]
    ," MPRA Paper 48020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
  36. Jakob de Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles," KOF Working papers 12-313, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  37. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  38. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  39. Miguel de Carvalho & António Rua, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  40. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 45, Asian Development Bank.
  42. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2004. "The use of real-time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  43. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de & Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2012. "Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles," Research Report 12010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  44. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "On the Model-Based Interpretation of Filters and the Reliability of Trend-Cycle Estimates," Econometrics 0403007, EconWPA.
  45. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  46. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
  47. Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza & Laura Dos Reis, 2007. "Targeting the Structural Balance ," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6722, Inter-American Development Bank.
  48. Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Konjunktur im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4002, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  49. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
  51. Jean-Paul Pollin & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2013. "Pourquoi faut-il séparer les activités bancaires ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1cud3763mom, Sciences Po.
  52. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rodrigues, Paulo C. & Rua, António, 2012. "Tracking the US business cycle with a singular spectrum analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 32-35.
  53. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2008. "Taking two steps at a time: On the optimal pattern of policy interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 550-570, February.
  54. Rodrigo De-Losso, 2012. "Did The Taylor Rule Stabilize Inflation in Brazil?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  55. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  56. Lemoine, Matthieu & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Monperrus-Veroni, Paola & Reynes, Frédéric, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for theeuro-area: comparing production function with unobserved componentsand SVAR approaches," MPRA Paper 13128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  57. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  58. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  59. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  60. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
  61. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes F. Wieland, 2010. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 16093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Hiroshi Kawata & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Koji Nakamura & Yuki Teranishi, 2013. "Impact of Macroprudential Policy Measures on Economic Dynamics: Simulation Using a Financial Macro-econometric Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-3, Bank of Japan.
  63. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
  64. Kaloyan Ganev, 2004. "Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria," Macroeconomics 0409010, EconWPA.
  65. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
  66. Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Robust monetary policy, optimal delegation and misspecified potential output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 244-247.
  67. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
  68. Farrell, Greg, 2014. "Countercyclical capital buffers and real-time credit-to-GDP gap estimates: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 55368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields & Zheng Wang, 2012. "Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 495-516, December.
  70. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2010. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  71. Egginton, Donald & Andreas Pick & Shaun P. Vahey, 2002. "Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 69, Royal Economic Society.
  72. Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, 2011. "The Australian Real?Time Datbase: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1132, The University of Melbourne.
  73. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2009. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Kiel Working Papers 1503, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  74. Fromlet, Pia, 2013. "Monetary Policy Under Discretion Or Commitment? -An Empirical Study," Working Paper Series 2013:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  75. Robert H. Rasche & Marcela M. Williams, 2007. "The effectiveness of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 447-490.
  76. Nadine Leiner-Killinger & Víctor López Pérez & Roger Stiegert & Giovanni Vitale, 2007. "Structural reforms in EMU and the role of monetary policy – a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 66, European Central Bank.
  77. Timothy Irwin & Oscar Parkyn, 2009. "Improving the Management of the Crown’s Exposure to Risk," Treasury Working Paper Series 09/06, New Zealand Treasury.
  78. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  79. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  80. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2004. "Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 37-66, March.
  81. Edward Nelson, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  82. Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder K., 2011. "Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-60, January.
  83. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-70, February.
  84. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M. & van Dijk, H.K., 2005. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  86. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Inspecting the noisy mechanism: the stochastic growth model with partial information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 207, Society for Computational Economics.
  87. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33–60.
  88. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2011. "Policy analysis in real time using IMF's monetary model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1696-1709, July.
  89. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
  90. Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July.
  91. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.
  92. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  93. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  94. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  95. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1064, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  96. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
  97. Tim Willems, 2010. "Labor Market Matching under Imperfect Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-098/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 May 2011.
  98. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.
  99. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  100. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder K, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  101. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  102. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  103. Kai Carstensen, 2007. "Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?," Kiel Working Papers 1318, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  104. Anderton, Robert & Aranki, Ted & Dieppe, Alistair & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jacquinot, Pascal & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Rusinova, Desislava & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
  105. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2012. "Prince-setting, monetary policy and the contractionary effects of productivity improvements," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0161, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  106. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 792-804, November.
  107. Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2005. "Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Working Papers 2005-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  108. Kevin D. Salyer & Kristin Van Gaasback, . "A New Application of Taylor Rules: Model Evaluation," Department of Economics 00-13, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  109. Özlale, Ümit & Özbek, Levent, 2008. "Analyzing time-varying effects of potential output growth shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 294-300, March.
  110. Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  111. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
  112. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/24, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  113. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce
    [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]
    ," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  114. Gumbau-Brisa, Fabia & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2013. "An evaluation of the Federal Reserve estimates of the natural rate of unemployment in real time," Working Papers 13-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  115. Angel J. Ubide & Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap; What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 01/203, International Monetary Fund.
  116. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  117. Lucian Croitoru, 2014. "Will there be Deflation and Current Account Surpluses?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, October.
  118. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Ecart de production dans la zone euro : une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2128, Sciences Po.
  119. J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2008. "La tasa de interés real neutral: definiciones y videncia para economías latinoamericanas," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 135-144 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  120. Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "Greenspan and the Greenbook," Economics Working Paper Archive 472, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  121. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 0764, European Central Bank.
  122. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
  123. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
  124. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  125. Daniel Tortorice, 2010. "Unemployment Expectations and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 05, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Mar 2011.
  126. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  127. James Yetman, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Potential Output Uncertainty, and Optimal Learning," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  128. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  129. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  130. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics.
  131. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining Inflation-Gap Persistence by a Time-Varying Taylor Rule," Working Papers 0521, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  132. World Bank, 2011. "Fiscal Responsibility Framework in Croatia : Lessons from the Past, Rules for the Future," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12895, The World Bank.
  133. Marco Buti & Martin Larch & Fabio Balboni, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, February.
  134. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  135. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  136. Ruthira Naraidoo & Kasai Ndahiriwe, 2010. "Financial asset prices, linear and nonlinear policy rules. An In-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank," Working Papers 201006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  137. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  138. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute To Stabilizing Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 13970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  139. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  140. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Øyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Røisland, Øistein, 2004. "Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  141. Kamada, Koichiro, 2004. "Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  142. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  143. Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Consumers, Consumer Prices and the Czech Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers 2004/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  144. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2014. "Improving the Reliability of Real-time Hodrick-Prescott Filtering Using Survey Forecasts," KOF Working papers 14-360, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  145. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  146. Mehra, Yash P., 2002. "Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 575-594.
  147. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2014. "Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-93.
  148. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  149. Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
  150. Tim Willems, 2010. "Labor Market Matching under Imperfect Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-098/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 May 2011.
  151. Onur Ince & David H. Papell, 2013. "The (Un)Reliability of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data," Working Papers 13-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  152. Massimiliano Marcellino & Alberto Musso, 2010. "the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/06, European University Institute.
  153. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
  154. Gradzewicz, Michal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2004. "Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach," MPRA Paper 28227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  155. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
  156. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  157. Mark W. Watson, 2007. "How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 143-161.
  158. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2008. "Previsão de inflação com incerteza do hiato do produto no Brasil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211138520, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  159. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
  160. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2009. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Working Papers 2072/15810, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  161. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "Taylor rules for the euro area: the issue of real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  162. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 6-18, 03.
  163. Baghli, Mustapha & Cahn, Christophe & Fraisse, Henri, 2007. "Is the inflation-output Nexus asymmetric in the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-6, January.
  164. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  165. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  166. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
  167. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  168. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  169. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2005. "Commentary on "reexamining the monetarist critique of interest rate rule"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 531-536.
  170. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0807, Banco de Espa�a.
  171. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
  172. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  173. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  174. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  175. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
  176. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  177. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  178. Michael Meow-Chung Yap, 2009. "Assessing Malaysia’s Business Cycle indicators," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  179. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
  180. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
  181. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2011. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 8472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  182. Sven Langedijk & Martin Larch, 2007. "Testing the EU fiscal surveillance: How sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?," European Economy - Economic Papers 285, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  183. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  184. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  185. Shuyun May Li & Roshan Perera & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Misspecification, Identification or Measurement? Another Look at the Price Puzzle," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1169, The University of Melbourne.
  186. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: a Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2011-20, CEPII research center.
  187. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
  188. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo Group Munich.
  189. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  190. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  191. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
  192. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  193. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  194. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2011. "Determinants of European stock market integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 574-585.
  195. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2009. "Can we rely on real time figures for cyclically adjusted budget balances?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2009-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Oct 2009.
  196. Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero & Ging Cee Ng & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Evaluating interest rate rules in an estimated DSGE model," Staff Reports 510, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  197. Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea & Tommaso Proietti, 2008. "The Effects of Unification: Markets, Policy and Cyclical Convergence in Italy, 1861-1913," CEIS Research Paper 133, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Nov 2008.
  198. Michal Andrle, 2013. "What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables," IMF Working Papers 13/105, International Monetary Fund.
  199. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  200. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
  201. Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  202. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
  203. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
  204. Stephen G Cecchetti, 2014. "Closing remarks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 175-178 Bank for International Settlements.
  205. Borgy, Vladimir & Clerc, Laurent & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2014. "Measuring aggregate risk: Can we robustly identify asset-price boom–bust cycles?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 132-150.
  206. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2012. "Real-time properties of the Federal Reserve's output gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  207. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile.
  208. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun, 2010. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  209. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 0115, European Central Bank.
  210. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
  211. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy And Key Unobservables: Evidence From Large Industrial And Selected Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 527, Central Bank of Chile.
  212. Alejandro Rodríguez & Esther Ruiz, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws100301, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  213. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
  214. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  215. Correa-López, Mónica & Mingorance-Arnáiz, Ana Cristina, 2012. "Demografía, mercado de trabajo y tecnología: El patrón de crecimiento de Cataluña, 1970-2020/Demography, Labour Market and Technical Progress: The Pattern of Growth in Cataluña, 1970-2020," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 365 (34 pag, Abril.
  216. James Twaddle & Florin Citu, 2003. "The output gap and its role in monetary policy decision-making," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 66, March.
  217. Alfred V. Guender & David Gillmore, 2008. "Practical Monetary Policies," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  218. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  219. Arturo Antón-Sarabia, 2008. "El problema al final de la muestra en la estimación del PIB potencial," Working papers DTE 442, CIDE, División de Economía.
  220. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2012. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1138, The University of Melbourne.
  221. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
  222. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  223. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
  224. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  225. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  226. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2014. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level," MPRA Paper 60142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  227. L Christopher Plantier & Ozer Karagedikli, 2005. "Do so-called multivariate filters have better revision properties? An empirical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 250, Society for Computational Economics.
  228. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  229. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  230. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  231. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 371-382.
  232. James Bullard, 2009. "President's welcome," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 179-180.
  233. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
  234. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
  235. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  236. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2128 is not listed on IDEAS
  237. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ravazzolo, F., 2007. "Evaluating real-time forecasts in real-time," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  238. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  239. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133.
  240. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth De la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle : une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  241. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
  242. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  243. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
  244. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
  245. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  246. Osman, Mohammad & Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?," MPRA Paper 11612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  247. Carsten Hefeker & Blandine Zimmer, 2014. "Optimal Conservatism and Collective Monetary Policymaking under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4933, CESifo Group Munich.
  248. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis – Importance of empirical validity," Working Paper 2006/13, Norges Bank.
  249. Xiangrong Yu, 2013. "Measurement Error and Policy Evaluation in the Frequency Domain," Working Papers 172013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  250. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Minding the speed limit," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may30.
  251. Fabio Balboni & Marco Buti & Martin Larch, 2007. "ECB vs Council vs Commission: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain," European Economy - Economic Papers 277, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  252. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  253. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Andrew Swiston & Gabriel Di Bella, 2015. "Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 15/14, International Monetary Fund.
  254. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  255. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  256. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
  257. Erler, Alexander & Krizanac, Damir, 2009. "Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik
    [Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 18604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  258. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2012. "Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 41-64.
  259. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  260. Q. Farook Akram, 2012. "Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy," Working Paper 2012/21, Norges Bank.
  261. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2006. "Euroland: konjunkturelle Expansion erreicht Höhepunkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  262. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
  263. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
  264. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the Euro Area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Sciences Po publications 2004-14, Sciences Po.
  265. Planas, C. & Roeger, W. & Rossi, A., 2013. "The information content of capacity utilization for detrending total factor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 577-590.
  266. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2008. "La brecha de producto en Chile: medición y evaluación," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 69-102 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  267. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  268. Paloviita, Maritta, 2007. "Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons," Research Discussion Papers 14/2007, Bank of Finland.
  269. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  270. Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  271. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
  272. Flodberg, Caroline & Österholm, Pär, 2015. "A Statistical Analysis of Revisions of Swedish National Accounts Data," Working Paper 136, National Institute of Economic Research.
  273. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.
  274. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  275. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2011. "Ist die Geldpolitik in den USA zu expansiv?," Kiel Policy Brief 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  276. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  277. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-402836 is not listed on IDEAS
  278. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  279. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "Constrained discretion in Sweden," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-44.
  280. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
  281. Rodrigo De-Losso, 2012. "Questioning The Taylor Rule," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_22, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  282. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  283. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Jaromir Hurnik & Jiri Podpiera & Jan Vlcek, 2005. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Potential Output," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 3, number rb03/1 edited by Vladislav Flek.
  284. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2009. "Schätzung der Outputlücke," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(2), pages 55-67, June.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.