IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/60142.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Theory of Price Level

Author

Listed:
  • Daly, Hounaida
  • Smida, Mounir

Abstract

Lack of coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities will result in inferior overall economic performance. This paper studies the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies and its effect on the economic performance by using al cointegration tests in the case of Euro Area. This paper examines the causal relationship between output gap, public debt, budget deficit, interest rate and inflation rate, and the impact of monetary policy on public debt management, in Euro Area from 1999Q1 to 2013Q4. The evidence supports the idea that the monetary policy is more stabilizing in its influence on the economic activity than the budget policy. The particular stance of monetary policy affects the capacity of the government to finance the budget deficit by changing the cost of debt service and limiting or expanding the available sources of financing. The result does not let hear strong political coordination in Euro Area, a weak policy stance in one policy area burdens the other area and is unsustainable in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2014. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level," MPRA Paper 60142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60142/1/MPRA_paper_60142.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fragetta, Matteo & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 855-879, October.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1995. "Monetary policy implications of greater fiscal discipline," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 151-170.
    6. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 175-243, March.
    7. Sims, Christopher A., 2008. "Improving monetary policy models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2460-2475, August.
    8. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    9. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    11. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    12. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Friedman and Taylor on monetary policy rules: a comparison," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Mar), pages 95-116.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Ramifications of Debt Restructuring on the Euro Area: The Example of Large European Economies' Exposure to Greece," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1141, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    17. van Aarle, B. & Bovenberg, A.L. & Raith, M., 1996. "Money, Fiscal Defecits and Government Debt in a Monetary Union," Other publications TiSEM a70573a8-34dd-40a6-a55c-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Christopher A. Sims, 2007. "Monetary Policy Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 75-90.
    19. Hess Chung & Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 809-842, June.
    20. Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance," Staff Working Papers 08-28, Bank of Canada.
    21. J. James Reade, 2011. "Modelling Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the US: A Cointegration Approach," Discussion Papers 11-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 1994. "The Coordination of Domestic Public Debt and Monetary Management in Economies in Transition: Issues and Lessons From Experience," IMF Working Papers 1994/148, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2005. "Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 422-433, 04/05.
    24. Hiona Balfoussia & Heather Gibson, 2010. "Inflation and Nominal Uncertainty: the case of Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 33, pages 63-78, May.
    25. Tanzi, Vito, 2008. "The role of the state and public finance in the next generation," Seminarios y Conferencias 7107, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    26. Lars E.O. Svensson & Kjetil Houg & Haakon O.Aa. Solheim & Erling Steigum, 2002. "An Independent Review of Monetary Policy and Institutions in Norway," Working Papers 120, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    27. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December.
    28. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    29. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    30. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Mr. Sérgio Pereira. Leite, 1992. "Coordinating Public Debt and Monetary Management During Financial Reforms," IMF Working Papers 1992/084, International Monetary Fund.
    33. repec:pri:cepsud:82svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 007-026, March.
    35. Sims, Christopher A., 1998. "Econometric implications of the government budget constraint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 9-19.
    36. Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc & Frank Smets, 2008. "Differences in Interest Rate Policy at the ECB and the Fed: An Investigation with a Medium‐Scale DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 505-521, March.
    37. Christopher A. Sims, 2007. "Monetary Policy Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 75-90.
    38. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2010. "Crisis, Threats and Ways Out for the Greek Economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 4(1), pages 89-96, June.
    39. Dixit, Avinash, 2001. "Games of monetary and fiscal interactions in the EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 589-613, May.
    40. Marvin Goodfriend & Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: a quantitative exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    41. Eric M. Leeper, 1990. "The dynamics of interest rate and tax rules in a stochastic model," International Finance Discussion Papers 375, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. repec:pri:cepsud:155sims is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2009. "(The Effect of) Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies (on Development)," Business School Working Papers 2009-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    44. Vassilis Th. Rapanoss & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2010. "Independent Fiscal Councils and Their Possible Role in Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 33, pages 7-20, May.
    45. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2011. "Ramifications of debt restructuring on the euro area," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 46(4), pages 188-196, August.
    46. Cristina Aurora Bunea-Bontaş & Mariana Mihăilescu & Cosmina Mihaela Petre, 2009. "Romania'S Fiscal Policy During The Current Crisis: Present And Future Prospects," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 12(12(541)(s), pages 207-214, December.
    47. Cristina Aurora Bunea-Bontas & Mihaela Cosmina Petre, 2010. "Fiscal Policy During The Current Crisis," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(4), pages 48-67, december.
    48. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    49. Momi Dahan, 1998. "The Fiscal Effects of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1998/066, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
    51. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Nadeem Hanif, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination: Pakistan’s Experience," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 3-13.
    52. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    53. Traum, Nora & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2011. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 140-164, January.
    54. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    55. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-279, January.
    56. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Bank, Alexander, 2011. "Effects of discretionary fiscal policy: new empirical evidence for Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-470, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    58. Vito Tanzi, 2008. "The role of the state and public finance in the next generation," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 1-27.
    59. Thomas Moutos & Christos Tsitsikas, 2010. "Whither Public Interest: The Case of Greece's Public Finances," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 66(2), pages 170-206, June.
    60. Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886.
    61. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank.
    62. Fernanda Nechio, 2010. "The Greek crisis: Argentina revisited?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov1.
    63. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    64. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    65. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kaan MASATÇI & Asuman OKTAYER BUZLUCA, 2022. "Testing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Türkiye by Using Structural Balance Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 74-95, December.
    2. Kaan Masatci & Asuman Oktayer, 2022. "The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 375-394, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]," MPRA Paper 48066, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    6. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, September.
    7. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    8. Annicchiarico Barbara & Marini Giancarlo & Piergallini Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Fiscal Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-42, February.
    9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    10. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    11. P Arestis & A Mihailov, 2009. "Flexible Rules cum Constrained Discretion: A New Consensus in Monetary Policy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 27-54, September.
    12. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring fiscal expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 17-42, September.
    13. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "Constrained discretion in Sweden," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-44.
    14. da Silva, Cleomar Gomes & Vieira, Flávio Vilela, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal policy in advanced and developing countries: An analysis before and after the financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 13-20.
    15. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2013. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions: interdependent policy rule coefficients," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
    17. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2018. "Autonomie des Banques Centrales et Finances Publiques en Afrique subsaharienne [Autonomy of Central Banks and Public Finances in Sub-saharan Africa]," MPRA Paper 100828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus, 2017. "Credibility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers hal-03457527, HAL.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T., 2001. "Indeterminacy, bubbles, and the fiscal theory of price level determination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 19-30, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Euro Area; Policy mix; Public debt; budget deficit.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.