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The dynamics of interest rate and tax rules in a stochastic model


  • Eric M. Leeper


A simple stochastic equilibrium structure is used to study the implications of monetary and fiscal policy interactions for government intertemporal budget balance. Existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibria are shown to depend on parameters of policy rules. The paper derives closed form solutions for equilibrium inflation and real debt as functions of policy parameters and policy shocks and obtains conditions under which the usual tests that deficits Granger-cause money creation will successfully uncover evidence of monetized deficits. In addition, equilibria are studied in which private agents today know tomorrow's taxes exactly. Coupling this informational assumption with a monetary policy that pegs the nominal interest rate reverses the usual Granger-causal ordering between deficits and monetization, so that money growth (or inflation) may predict higher deficits. This implies that empirical work designed to detect that deficits have been monetized by testing whether deficits Granger-cause money creation, may fail to uncover the monetization.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric M. Leeper, 1990. "The dynamics of interest rate and tax rules in a stochastic model," International Finance Discussion Papers 375, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:375

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1986. "Some issues concerning interest rate pegging, price level determinacy, and the real bills doctrine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 135-160, January.
    2. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein & Paul R. Masson, 1989. "Simulating the Effects of Some Simple Coordinated versus Uncoordinated Policy," NBER Working Papers 2929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1985. "Money, deficits, and inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-195, January.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    6. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
    7. Eric M. Leeper, 1989. "Policy rules, information and fiscal effects in a "Ricardian" model," International Finance Discussion Papers 360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "A forward-looking multicountry model: MX3," International Finance Discussion Papers 359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Rao Aiyagari, S. & Gertler, Mark, 1985. "The backing of government bonds and monetarism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-44, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce
      [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]
      ," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique
      [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]
      ," MPRA Paper 48020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2014. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level," MPRA Paper 60142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Interest rates ; Monetary policy ; Taxation;


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