The dynamics of interest rate and tax rules in a stochastic model
A simple stochastic equilibrium structure is used to study the implications of monetary and fiscal policy interactions for government intertemporal budget balance. Existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibria are shown to depend on parameters of policy rules. The paper derives closed form solutions for equilibrium inflation and real debt as functions of policy parameters and policy shocks and obtains conditions under which the usual tests that deficits Granger-cause money creation will successfully uncover evidence of monetized deficits. In addition, equilibria are studied in which private agents today know tomorrow's taxes exactly. Coupling this informational assumption with a monetary policy that pegs the nominal interest rate reverses the usual Granger-causal ordering between deficits and monetization, so that money growth (or inflation) may predict higher deficits. This implies that empirical work designed to detect that deficits have been monetized by testing whether deficits Granger-cause money creation, may fail to uncover the monetization.
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- McCallum, Bennett T., 1986.
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- Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "Some Issues Concerning Interest Rate Pegging, Price Level Determinacy, and the Real Bills Doctrine," NBER Working Papers 1294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein & Paul R. Masson, 1989. "Simulating the Effects of Some Simple Coordinated versus Uncoordinated Policy," NBER Working Papers 2929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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NBER Working Papers
0905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Eric M. Leeper, 1989. "Policy rules, information and fiscal effects in a "Ricardian" model," International Finance Discussion Papers 360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1989.
"Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
- Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "A forward-looking multicountry model: MX3," International Finance Discussion Papers 359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rao Aiyagari, S. & Gertler, Mark, 1985. "The backing of government bonds and monetarism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-44, July.
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