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Empirical analysis of fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in Nigeria

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  • Afolabi, Joseph Olarewaju
  • Atolagbe, Oluwafemi

Abstract

The study empirically investigates fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. It adopts the vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and cointegration technique to analyze the data and make inference. The findings reveal that there is no evidence of fiscal dominance in Nigeria. The empirical results show that budget deficit, domestic debt and money supply have no significant influence on the average price level. However, budget deficit and domestic debt are shown to have significant influence on money supply, but only in the short-run. The policy implication is that the government should enforce fiscal discipline through the appropriate institution and the Central Bank should be given autonomy to perform the primary function of long-term price stability, among other functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Afolabi, Joseph Olarewaju & Atolagbe, Oluwafemi, 2018. "Empirical analysis of fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 88786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88786
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88786/1/MPRA_paper_88786.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
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    4. Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
    5. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 5(Fall).
    7. Philip Turner, 2011. "Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate," FMG Special Papers sp199, Financial Markets Group.
    8. Rao Aiyagari, S. & Gertler, Mark, 1985. "The backing of government bonds and monetarism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-44, July.
    9. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    10. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 05/221, International Monetary Fund.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal dominance; fiscal policy; monetary policy; VECM; Nigeria.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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