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The benefits of fiscal consolidation in uncharted waters

Author

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  • Schuknecht, Ludger
  • Rother, Philipp
  • Stark, Jürgen

Abstract

This paper looks at fiscal sustainability and fiscal risks from a comprehensive, global perspective. It argues that the benefits of consolidation have to be re-assessed given that industrialised countries have entered uncharted waters with unsustainable public debt dynamics and enormous contingent liabilities across sectors and countries coinciding with strong, non-linear and potentially highly adverse fiscal-financial interlinkages. This suggests that there would be significant benefits from fiscal consolidation without delay and that there is a need for caution against excessive faith in fiscal engineering. JEL Classification: C32, E3, E43, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Schuknecht, Ludger & Rother, Philipp & Stark, Jürgen, 2010. "The benefits of fiscal consolidation in uncharted waters," Occasional Paper Series 121, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2010121
    Note: 175489
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp121.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Mihokova, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation Start and its Determinants Analysis Within European Member Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(3), pages 135-148.
    2. Valerio Filoso, Valerio & Panico, Carlo & Papagni, Erasmo & Francesco, Purificato & Vázquez Suarez, Marta, 2016. "Causes and timing of the European debt crisis: An econometric evaluation," MPRA Paper 75847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shinji Asanuma, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability & Competitiveness in Europe and Asia by Ramkishen S. Rajan , Tan Khee Giap and Tan Kong Yam Palgrave Macmillan , New York , 2014 xii+202. ISBN 978 1 137 40696 5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 194-195, May.
    4. Anthony J. Makin, 2014. "The Paradoxes and Pitfalls of Revived Fiscal Activism," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 59-67, February.
    5. Beirne, John & Tapking, Jens & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Monar, Fernando & Manganelli, Simone & Grothe, Magdalena & Ejsing, Jacob & Dalitz, Lars & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.
    6. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    7. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 276-294.
    8. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
    9. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    10. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:135-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Beirne, John & Dalitz, Lars & Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Manganelli, Simone & Monar, Fernando & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Tapking, Jens & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consolidation; deficits; financial crisis; fiscal sustainability; public debt; tail risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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