ECB vs Council vs Commission: Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain
This paper examines economic policy interactions in the Economic and Monetary Union when the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is surrounded by uncertainty. On the basis of a simple stylised model it shows that different views about the output gap on the side of the policy players - the Council of the European Union, the European Commission and the European Central Bank - can affect the equilibrium outcome in terms of output, inflation, the budget deficit and the interest rate. More specifically, if fiscal and monetary policy decisions are taken simultaneously diverging views about the cycle can give rise to excessive activism as policy players try to push economic variables into opposite directions. The costs of such policy conflicts can be reduced by agreeing on a common assessment of the cycle, by constraining policy variables, by increasing the weight of fiscally conservative institutions. Another way to sidestep policy conflicts ensuing from diverging views of the cycle is to take policy decisions sequentially, as is the case in a Stackelberg-type of interaction. To the extent that misperceptions are random, the leader, who moves first, will assume that the follower's assessment will be in line with its own view of the cycle. This effectively precludes the kind of frictions arising in a simultaneous setup, because the leader cannot backtrack. For a given misperception of the cycle, the impact on the policy instruments and on output and inflation are generally smaller in the Stackelberg equilibrium as compared to a Nash outcome.
|Date of creation:||May 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels|
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/economic-and-financial-affairs_en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Buti & Paul Noord, 2004. "Fiscal Discretion and Elections in the Early Years of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 737-756, November.
- Servaas Deroose & Sven Langedijk, 2002. "Economic Policy Coordination in EMU: Accomplishments and Challenges," Chapters,in: EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001.
"Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?,"
IMF Working Papers
01/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Roel Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Frank Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 599, CESifo Group Munich.
- Roel Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Klaassen, Franc, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2006. "Only One Bed for Two Dreams: A Critical Retrospective on the Debate over the Economic Governance of the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 823-844, November.
- Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Alberto Musso & Marc Stocker & Jarkko Turunen, 2006. "Labour productivity developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 53, European Central Bank.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 307, European Central Bank.
- Alan Ahearne & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2006. "The Euro: only for the agile," Policy Briefs 42, Bruegel.
- Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
- Bas van Aarle & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2002. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Design in the EMU: An Overview," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 321-340, October.
- van Aarle, B. & Di Bartolomeo, G. & Engwerda, J.C. & Plasmans, J.E.J., 2002. "Monetary and fiscal policy design in the EMU : An overview," Other publications TiSEM bc75d00d-2309-49a5-ad54-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1522-1542, December.
- Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 575, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christopher Allsopp & Michael J. Artis, 2003. "The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29.
- Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003. "Revisiting EMU's Stability Pact: A Pragmatic Way Forward," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 100-111.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Buti, M. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting EMU's stability pact : A pragmatic way forward," Other publications TiSEM 2074fa3c-362a-4366-a649-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Bean, Charles, 1998. "Monetary Policy under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 41-53, Autumn.
- Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, "undated". "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Rovelli, Riccardo, 1999. "Modelling and Identifying Central Banks' Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 2178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.