IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rtv/ceisrp/133.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Unification: Markets, Policy and Cyclical Convergence in Italy, 1861-1913

Author

Abstract

This paper examines the convergence of regional business cycles in the decades that followed Italy's Unification. The aggregate construction series point to cyclical convergence, but a sectorlevel analysis traces this result to the decline in differentiated "regional-policy" shocks. The regional market cycles diverged, as the regions specialized in different sectors of production; market-cycle convergence is observed only within the "industrial triangle," the regions of which also developed different specializations. This suggests that the balance between growing interdependence and growing differentiation is not general, as the current literature presumes, but specialization-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea & Tommaso Proietti, 2008. "The Effects of Unification: Markets, Policy and Cyclical Convergence in Italy, 1861-1913," CEIS Research Paper 133, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Nov 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/RP133.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
    3. Federico, Giovanni, 2007. "Market integration and market efficiency: The case of 19th century Italy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-316, April.
    4. Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea, 2008. "Construction in Italy's Regions, 1861-1913," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 303-340.
    5. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2003. "Peeking Backward: Regional Aspects of Industrial Growth in Post-Unification Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 1059-1102, December.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    8. Toniolo, Gianni & Conte, Leandro & Vecchi, Giovanni, 2003. "Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862-1905," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 443-461, October.
    9. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    10. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2008. "Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-101, July.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2006. "Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 91-104, November.
    12. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    13. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 405-442, September.
    2. Federico, Giovanni & Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2013. "The ripples of the Industrial revolution: exports, economic growth and regional integration in Italy in the early 19th century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp13-02, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    3. Emanuele Felice, 2011. "The Rule and the Exception: Italy’s Regional Imbalances (1891-2001) through a Shift-Share Analysis," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, December.
    4. Di Liberto, Adriana & Sideri, Marco, 2015. "Past dominations, current institutions and the Italian regional economic performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-41.
    5. Emanuele Felice, 2012. "Regional convergence in Italy, 1891–2001: testing human and social capital," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(3), pages 267-306, October.
    6. Makiko Hino & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2014. "Catching up and falling behind in technological progress: the experience of the textile and chemical industries in Italy between 1904 and 1937," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Emanuele Felice, 2014. "GDP and convergence in modern times," Working Papers 01-14, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2014. "The ripples of the industrial revolution: exports, economic growth, and regional integration in Italy in the early nineteenth century," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(3), pages 349-369.
    9. Carlo Ciccarelli & Anna Missiaia, 2018. "The fall and rise of business cycle co-movements in Imperial Austria’s regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 171-193, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "The comovements of construction in Italy's regions, 1861-1913," MPRA Paper 8870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
    4. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    6. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2014. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 301-334, September.
    7. Wolf, Elias & Mokinski, Frieder & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "On adjusting the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter," Discussion Papers 11/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Gerhard Rünstler & Marente Vlekke, 2018. "Business, housing, and credit cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 212-226, March.
    9. Joao Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & Antonio Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Peter Huber & Petr Rozmahel, 2016. "Regional Business-Cycle Synchronization, Sector Specialization and EU Accession," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 544-568, May.
    11. Anna Solms & Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "Business cycle characteristics of Mediterranean economies: a secular trend and cycle dynamics perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 825-862, October.
    12. Chikako Baba & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Olamide Harrison & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Anvar Musayev & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2020. "How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/006, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 9, pages 385-433, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    18. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.
    19. repec:got:cegedp:84 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Antoine Gentier & Giusepina Gianfreda & Nathalie Janson, 2011. "Rent dissipation or government predation ? The notes issuance activity in Italy 1865-1882," Post-Print hal-00735325, HAL.
    21. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Barbara Piazzi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.