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The trend–cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Busetti

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Michele Caivano

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Abstract A standard model-based trend–cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat. Bayesian estimation of the model allows to impose a mildly informative prior on the parameter governing the periodicity of the cycle, and thus, it helps to achieve the preferred decomposition. In a bivariate output and Phillips curve model for Italy, it is found that (i) the median response of prices to a 1 % shock to the output gap is equal to about 0.5 % after 20 quarters, (ii) the inflation cycle lags GDP on average by about three quarters. Estimating the model with Euro area data provides evidence of a smaller impact of the output gap on prices (0.4 %) and a lower lag of the inflation cycle with respect to GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano, 2016. "The trend–cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1565-1587, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:50:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-015-0982-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0982-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 382, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian methods; Unobserved components; Potential output; Trend; Cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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