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Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. RenÈ Garcia, 2002. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 102-119, January.
  2. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
  3. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  4. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
  5. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  6. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
  8. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  9. Xiaochun Liu, 2016. "Markov switching quantile autoregression," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(4), pages 356-395, November.
  10. Moreno Cuartas, Blanca & López Menéndez, Ana Jesús, 2007. "Las Opiniones Empresariales Como Predictores De Los Puntos De Giro Del Ciclo Industrial/Forescasting Turning Points of the Industrial Cycle from Business Expectation Surveys," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 511-528, Abril.
  11. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian currency turmoil of 2002: a nonlinear analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 289-306.
  12. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  13. Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2015. "The role of U.S. subprime mortgage-backed assets in propagating the crisis: Contagion or interdependence?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 167-186.
  14. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
  15. Simpson, Paul W & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 405-424, September.
  16. Ming‐Yuan Leon Li, 2009. "The dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets under high and low variance regimes," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 696-718, November.
  17. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 175-206, April.
  18. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
  19. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
  20. Robert Gagné & Simon van Norden & Bruno Versaevel, 2003. "Testing Optimal Punishment Mechanisms Under Price Regulation: the Case of the Retail Market for Gasoline," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-57, CIRANO.
  21. Frédéric Karamé & Alexandra Olmedo, 2010. "Asymmetric Properties of Impulse Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural Vector AutoRegressions," Documents de recherche 10-04, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
  22. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
  23. Daniel Aromi & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "Un analisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de regimen," Working Papers 1431, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  24. Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July.
  25. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  26. Duan, Huayou & Zhao, Chenchen & Wang, Lu & Liu, Guangqiang, 2024. "The relationship between renewable energy attention and volatility: A HAR model with markov time-varying transition probability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  27. Massimiliano Marcellino & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Stochastic Processes Subject to Time-Scale Transformations: An Application to High-Frequency FX Data," Working Papers 164, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  28. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
  29. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
  30. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
  31. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2011. "State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working papers 347, Banque de France.
  32. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
  33. Kuang-Liang Chang & Ming-Hui Yen, 2014. "The magnitude and significance of macroeconomic variables in explaining regional housing fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 828-841.
  34. Layton, Allan P. & Katsuura, Masaki, 2001. "Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 403-417.
  35. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
  36. Ibrahim L. Awad, 2019. "Revisiting the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Egypt: Why Is the Statistical Association Weak in the Short Run?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 18(1), pages 59-78, June.
  37. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
  38. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
  39. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  40. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2017. "Did the crisis permanently scar the Portuguese labour market? Evidence from a Markov-switching Beveridge curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2043, European Central Bank.
  41. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  42. Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
  43. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  44. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
  45. Chkili, Walid, 2017. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven for Islamic stock market movements? A Markov switching approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 152-163.
  46. Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2002. "The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 96-105, October.
  47. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "Non-linearities, cyber attacks and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  48. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  49. Shinn-Juh Lin & Jian Yang, 2003. "Examining intraday returns with buy/sell information," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 447-461.
  50. Wajih Khallouli & Mahmoud Sami Nabi, 2010. "Financial Crises’ Prevention and Recovery," Working Papers 529, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
  51. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
  52. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
  53. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2024. "Markov-Switching Models with State-Dependent Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 49-63.
  54. Remzi Uctum, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482.
  55. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
  56. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  57. Wajih Khallouli & René Sandretto, 2012. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East and North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 134-166.
  58. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
  59. Philip M. Bodman, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  60. Bailliu, Jeannine & Dib, Ali & Kano, Takashi & Schembri, Lawrence, 2014. "Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 68-87.
  61. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
  62. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1999. "Purchasing Power Parity : Evidence from a New Test," Discussion Paper 1999-09, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  63. Huseyin Tastan & Nuri Yildirim, 2008. "Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 315-333.
  64. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  65. Stefan Avdjiev & Zheng Zeng, 2014. "Credit growth, monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2936-2951, August.
  66. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274.
  67. Dufrénot, Gilles & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2342-2357, September.
  68. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  69. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.
  70. Brockman, Paul & Liebenberg, Ivonne & Schutte, Maria, 2010. "Comovement, information production, and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 107-129, July.
  71. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
  72. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
  73. Coppola, Anna & Urga, Giovanni & Varaldo, Alessandro, 2025. "Asset class liquidity risk indicators. Timing the risk in the European and US equity and bond markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  74. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Alizadeh-M, Amir H., 2002. "Seasonality patterns in tanker spot freight rate markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 747-782, November.
  75. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  76. Leena Kalliovirta & Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2015. "A Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive Model for Univariate Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 247-266, March.
  77. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  78. Chib & Siddhartha; Dueker, 2004. "Non-Markovian Regime Switching with Endogenous States and Time-Varying State Strengths," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 600, Econometric Society.
  79. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
  80. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
  81. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "The forward premium puzzle and the Euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 436-451.
  82. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
  83. W. Hölzl & S. Kaniovski & Y. Kaniovski, 2019. "Exploring the dynamics of business survey data using Markov models," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 621-649, October.
  84. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  85. Kyriakos Chourdakis, 2000. "Stochastic Volatility and Jumps Driven by Continuous Time Markov Chains," Working Papers 430, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  86. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
  87. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
  88. Turtle, H.J. & Zhang, Chengping, 2012. "Time-varying performance of international mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 334-348.
  89. Felix Kapfhammer, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes," Working Papers No 01/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  90. Sondhauss, Ursula & Weihs, Claus, 1999. "Dynamic Bayesian networks for classification of business cycles," Technical Reports 1999,17, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  91. Fabra, Natalia & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Price wars and collusion in the Spanish electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 155-181, April.
  92. Huseyin Gulen & Yuhang Xing & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Value versus Growth: Time‐Varying Expected Stock Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 381-407, June.
  93. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  94. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
  95. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus, 2017. "How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models," Staff Working Papers 17-32, Bank of Canada.
  96. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
  97. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
  98. Ning, Ye & Zhang, Lingxiang, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of short-term international capital flows in China: A Markov regime switching approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 193-203.
  99. Mohammadreza Mahmoudi & Hana Ghaneei, 2021. "Detection of Structural Regimes and Analyzing the Impact of Crude Oil Market on Canadian Stock Market: Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Papers 2109.01046, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  100. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  101. Amisano, Gianni & Fagan, Gabriel, 2013. "Money growth and inflation: A regime switching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 118-145.
  102. Knedlik, Tobias & Scheufele, Rolf, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  103. Martín Solá & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  104. Jamol Bahromov, 2022. "Regime-switching empirical similarity model: a comparison with baseline models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2655-2674, November.
  105. Wolfgang Drobetz & Patrick Wegmann, 2002. "Mean Reversion on Global Stock Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(III), pages 215-239, September.
  106. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  107. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-500 is not listed on IDEAS
  108. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke, 2016. "The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS-VAR Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 895-914, December.
  109. Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  110. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
  111. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  112. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  113. Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 87-95, January.
  114. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Cyclical Uncertainty and Physical Investment Decisions," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 169, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  115. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  116. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  117. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  118. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 5615, CESifo.
  119. Ramon Maria-Dolores, "undated". "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Effects of Monetary Policy on Output: Some European Evidence," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-04, FEDEA.
  120. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2007. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S.dollar futures markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  121. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
  122. Hematizadeh, Roksana & Tajaddini, Reza & Hallahan, Terrence, 2022. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy using a state-dependent Markov model: Applications to international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  123. Chris Birchenhall & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
  124. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
  125. Roland G. Shami & Catherine S. Forbes, 2002. "Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  126. Isaac Abunyuwah & Henry De-Graft Acquah, 2013. "Modelling non-linear Spatial Market Integration and Equilibrium Processes in Hidden Markov Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(8), pages 535-545.
  127. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7l23tbn4rd9539sljmp8of2hcb is not listed on IDEAS
  128. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  129. Jeremy Schwartz, 2012. "Labor market dynamics over the business cycle: evidence from Markov switching models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 271-289, August.
  130. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
  131. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  132. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  133. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  134. Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 198, Econometric Society.
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  136. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
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