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Non-Linearities, Cyber Attacks and Cryptocurrencies

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Woo-Young Kang
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper uses a Markov-switching non-linear specification to analyse the effects of cyber attacks on returns in the case of four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethernam, Litecoin and Stellar) over the period 8/8/2015 - 28/2/2019. The analysis considers both cyber attacks in general and those targeting cryptocurrencies in particular, and also uses cumulative measures capturing persistence. On the whole, the results suggest the existence of significant negative effects of cyber attacks on the probability for cryptocurrencies to stay in the low volatility regime. This is an interesting finding, that confirms the importance of gaining a deeper understanding of this form of crime and of the tools used by cybercriminals in order to prevent possibly severe disruptions to markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2019. "Non-Linearities, Cyber Attacks and Cryptocurrencies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7692, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7692
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    Cited by:

    1. Mercik, Aleksander & Słoński, Tomasz & Karaś, Marta, 2024. "Understanding crypto-asset exposure: An investigation of its impact on performance and stock sensitivity among listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Rachel J. Nam & Ye Yuan, 2023. "Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10598, CESifo.
    3. Tian, Shu & Zhao, Bo & Olivares, Resi Ong, 2023. "Cybersecurity risks and central banks’ sentiment on central bank digital currency: Evidence from global cyberattacks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Mircea Constantin Șcheau & Simona Liliana Crăciunescu & Iulia Brici & Monica Violeta Achim, 2020. "A Cryptocurrency Spectrum Short Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Yousaf, Imran & Pham, Linh & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Dynamic spillovers between leading cryptocurrencies and derivatives tokens: Insights from a quantile VAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Guesmi, Khaled & Msolli, Badreddine, 2022. "How does COVID-19 influence dynamic spillover connectedness between cryptocurrencies? Evidence from non-parametric causality-in-quantiles techniques," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    8. Martin Eling & Kwangmin Jung, 2022. "Heterogeneity in cyber loss severity and its impact on cyber risk measurement," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 273-297, December.
    9. Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Returns, Cybercrime and Stock Market Volatility: GAS and Regime Switching Approaches," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 52-64, November.
    10. Liu, Shiang & Yang, Changyu, 2024. "Spot cryptocurrency ETFs: Crypto investment products or stepping stones toward tokenization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    11. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Bitcoin forks: What drives the branches?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from gold and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    13. Peterson K. Ozili, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency Can Lead to the Collapse of Cryptocurrency," Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, in: Digital Transformation, Strategic Resilience, Cyber Security and Risk Management, volume 111, pages 191-198, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2020. "Cyber-Attacks, Cryptocurrencies, and Cyber Security," CESifo Working Paper Series 8124, CESifo.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Yousaf, Imran & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Reputational contagion and the fall of FTX: Examining the response of tokens to the delegitimization of FTT," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Umar, Muhammad, 2025. "The impact of cyber-attacks on different dimensions of cryptocurrency markets," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Figà-Talamanca, Gianna & Focardi, Sergio & Patacca, Marco, 2021. "Regime switches and commonalities of the cryptocurrencies asset class," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Costantini, Mauro & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    20. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Elie Bouri & Anupam Dutta, 2021. "Herding on Fundamental/Nonfundamental Information During the COVID-19 Outbreak and Cyber-Attacks: Evidence From the Cryptocurrency Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    21. Atef Ghalwesh & Shimaa Ouf & Amr Sayed, 2020. "A Proposed System for Securing Cryptocurrency Via the Integration of Internet of Things with Blockchain," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 166-173.
    22. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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