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Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities

Author Info

  • Martín Solá

    ()

  • Zacharias Psaradakis

    ()

  • Fabio Spagnolo

    ()

  • Nicola Spagnolo

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates some finite-sample issues that arise in the analysis of Markovswitching autoregressive models with time-varying probabilities. An extensive simulation study is undertaken to examine the small-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and related statistics, and to investigate the implications of misspecification due to changes in the parameters of the transition mechanism.

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File URL: http://www.utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_129414579864067500.pdf
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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2010-12.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2010-12
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=439&id_item_menu=568
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Keywords: Markov switching; Monte Carlo experiments; Time-varying transition probabilities.;

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  1. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
  2. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
  3. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  5. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Working Papers 2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
  7. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 79-91.
  8. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, EconWPA.
  11. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
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