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Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities

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Listed:
  • Martín Solá
  • Zacharias Psaradakis
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper investigates some finite-sample issues that arise in the analysis of Markovswitching autoregressive models with time-varying probabilities. An extensive simulation study is undertaken to examine the small-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and related statistics, and to investigate the implications of misspecification due to changes in the parameters of the transition mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Solá & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2010-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2024. "Markov-Switching Models with State-Dependent Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 49-63.
    2. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    3. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 711-732, August.
    4. Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "The impact of setting negative policy rates on banking flows and exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    6. Marie Bessec, 2015. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Post-Print hal-01276824, HAL.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15246 is not listed on IDEAS

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