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Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities

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Listed:
  • Martín Solá
  • Zacharias Psaradakis
  • Fabio Spagnolo
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper investigates some finite-sample issues that arise in the analysis of Markovswitching autoregressive models with time-varying probabilities. An extensive simulation study is undertaken to examine the small-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and related statistics, and to investigate the implications of misspecification due to changes in the parameters of the transition mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Solá & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Some Cautionary Results Concerning Markov-Switching Models with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2010-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
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    11. Patricia Alvarez‐Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov‐Switching Model Estimation," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 79-91, March.
    12. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 711-732, August.
    2. Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "The impact of setting negative policy rates on banking flows and exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    4. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2024. "Markov-Switching Models with State-Dependent Time-Varying Transition Probabilities," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 49-63.
    5. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016_04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    6. Marie Bessec, 2015. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Post-Print hal-01276824, HAL.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15246 is not listed on IDEAS

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