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How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?

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Cited by:

  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
  2. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Innovation, finance, and economic growth: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 703-736, July.
  5. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2018. "Equity return predictability, time varying volatility and learning about the permanence of shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 315-343.
  6. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
  7. Barañano Mentxaka, Ilaski & Romero-Avila, Diego, 2013. "Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence," IKERLANAK Ikerlanak;2013-68, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
  8. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
  9. Gluzberg, Victor E. & Katz, Yuri A., 2019. "Planetary boundaries of consumption growth: Declining social discount rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 362-374.
  10. Sadequl Islam, 1996. "Persistence of economic growth and its determinants: some evidence for South Korea and India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 53-54.
  11. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
  12. Luger, Richard, 2003. "Exact non-parametric tests for a random walk with unknown drift under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 259-276, August.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  14. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  15. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
  16. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  17. Kenneth A. Froot, 2019. "Currency Hedging Over Long Horizons," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 37-66, May.
  18. Mills, Terence C, 1994. "Infrequent Permanent Shocks and the Unit Root in Quarterly UK Output," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 91-94, January.
  19. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald & Ian Marsh, 2011. "Remilitarization and the End of the Gold Bloc in 1936," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 305-321, September.
  20. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
  21. Durlauf, Steven N., 1991. "Spectral based testing of the martingale hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, December.
  22. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
  23. Nilss Olekalns & Nigel Wilkins, 1998. "Re‐examining the Evidence for Long‐Run Purchasing Power Parity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(224), pages 54-61, March.
  24. Geetha Mayadunne & Merran Evans & Brett Inder, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(2), pages 145-156, June.
  25. Rabanal, Cristian & Baronio, Alfredo Mario, 2010. "Alternativas para la modelización de tendencias y ciclos en la economía argentina, 1880-2009/Alternatives for Modeling Trends and Cycles in Argentina's Economy, 1880 - 2009," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 651-670, Diciembre.
  26. María Gadea & Marcela Sabaté, 2004. "The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: The Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound Sterling from 1883 to 1931," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January.
  27. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
  30. Robert Anderton, 1997. "Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 22-38, March.
  31. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2017. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86148, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  32. Dimitrios Vougas, 2001. "Real per capita GNP of USA: examination of the presence of a unit root via overdifferencing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 373-375.
  33. Massimo Caruso, 2004. "Infrequent Shocks, Output Persistence and Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 243-260, March.
  34. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423.
  35. repec:zbw:rwirep:0434 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. F. Goerlich, 1991. "Persistencia en las fluctuaciones económicas: evidencia para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 193-202, January.
  37. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
  38. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
  39. John H. Cochrane, 1990. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
  41. Fagiolo, Giorgio & Dosi, Giovanni, 2003. "Exploitation, exploration and innovation in a model of endogenous growth with locally interacting agents," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 237-273, September.
  42. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  43. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
  44. Mallick, Debdulal, 2015. "Elusive Relationship between Business-cycle Volatility and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 64502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 1994. "Periodic properties of interpolated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 221-228.
  46. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 34-49, March.
  47. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 15-18.
  48. Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
  49. Aron, Janine & Elbadawi, Ibrahim, 1994. "A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for auction exchange rates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1396, The World Bank.
  50. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
  51. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 11988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  53. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
  54. Elwood, S. Kirk, 1998. "Is the persistence of shocks to output asymmetric?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 411-426, April.
  55. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
  56. Nalewaik, Jeremy & Pinto, Eugénio, 2015. "The response of capital goods shipments to demand over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 62-80.
  57. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-35.
  58. Cornelis A. Los & Joanna M. Lipka, 2004. "Long-Term Dependence Characteristics of European Stock Indices," Finance 0409044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
  60. Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Monetary targeting and inflation: 1976-1984," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 5-16.
  61. D.K. Srivastava & K.R. Shanmugam, 2012. "Stationarity Test for Aggregate Outputs in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2012-072, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  62. Graflund, Andreas, 2001. "Some Time Serial Properties of the Swedish Real Estate Stock Market, 1939-1998," Working Papers 2001:8, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  63. Caruso, Massimo, 2001. "Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 189-217, June.
  64. Roisland, Oistein, 2001. "Institutional Arrangements for Monetary Policy When Output Is Persistent," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 994-1014, November.
  65. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  66. Scheide, Joachim, 1989. "On real and monetary explanations of business cycles in West Germany," Kiel Working Papers 356, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  67. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis using integrated regression functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2278-2294, December.
  68. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 5794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
  70. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
  71. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Fall), pages 3-18.
  73. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  74. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  75. Catherine Araujo Bonjean, 1998. "Les marchés mondiaux des produits agricoles sont-ils efficients ?," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 8-15.
  76. Katuala, Hénock M., 2021. "Frictions financières et Dynamique macroéconomique : Examen des régularités cycliques," Dynare Working Papers 66, CEPREMAP.
  77. Scheide, Joachim, 1990. "Die westdeutsche Konjunktur: Nur ein Random Walk?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  78. Sebastian Edwards, 1994. "Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America: Recent Experience and Some Sequencing Issues," NBER Working Papers 4697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Brian Aitken, 1998. "Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 173-184, April.
  80. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo, 2003. "Testing the Order of Integration with Low Power Tests. An Application to Argentine Macro-variables," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 221-246, November.
  81. Han, Hsiang-Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 1997. "Consumption, income and cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 107-117.
  82. Luca Benati, 2017. "Could the Bubble in U.S. House Prices Have Been Detected in Real Time?," Diskussionsschriften dp1705, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  83. Barañano, Ilaski & Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2015. "Long-term growth and persistence with obsolescence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 328-339.
  84. de Jong, F.C.J.M. & Nijman, T.E. & Röell, A.A., 1996. "Price effects of trading and components of the bid-ask spread on the Paris Bourse," Other publications TiSEM 08f5fa19-14b7-4bc8-ba07-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  88. Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," Working Papers 01-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
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  91. Ali Abdul Aziz & Shukur Ghazi & Månsson Kristofer, 2020. "A wavelet-based variance ratio unit root test for a system of equations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-16, June.
  92. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
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