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The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth

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  • Antonio Fatás

Abstract

This paper studies the link between business cycles and long-term growth rates. We present empirical evidence that uncovers interesting and significant interactions between cycles and growth. We show that business cycles cannot be considered as temporary deviations from a trend and that there is a strong positive correlation between the persistence of short-term fluctuations and long-term growth rates. A simple endogenous growth model where business cycles affect growth can easily replicate this correlation. We then study the link between volatility and growth. We show that countries with more volatile fluctuations display lower long-term growth rates. We also find evidence that there is a non-linearity in this relationship. The effect of business cycles on growth is much larger for poor countries or countries with a lower degree of financial development.

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  • Antonio Fatás, 2002. "The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 156, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:156
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    Cited by:

    1. Eze, Titus Chinweuba, 2016. "Re-Examination of Wagners Hypothesis: Implications for the Dwindling Oil Revenue in Nigeran Economy," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 74-90, September.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. Paolo Mauro & Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:taf:specan:v:12:y:2017:i:2-3:p:251-278 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile.

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