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Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization

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  • Ms. May Y Khamis

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of private sector credit in chronic inflation countries that undergo exchange rate-based inflation stabilizations. It concludes that these programs are characterized by a strong increase in private sector credit, both in absolute terms and as a fraction of real economic activity. Empirical results using data for Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and Israel support a negative statistically significant relationship between credit and inflation for Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, but not for Israel. In addition, for both Chile and Mexico, dummy variables representing periods of inflation stabilization are positive and statistically different from zero indicating a stronger expansion in private sector credit during stabilization. These results could potentially explain the consumption boom that is usually present in the early stages of these programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. May Y Khamis, 1996. "Credit and Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 1996/051, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1996/051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Adam Koronowski, 2009. "Divergent business cycles as an effect of a monetary union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 103-113, July.
    3. Zerbini, Maria Beatriz & Rocha, Fabiana, 2002. "Private sector credit and inflation during Brazilian stabilization plans: Models with endogenously determined structural breaks," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 22(2), November.
    4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
    5. Nguyen Van Phuc & Luong Duy Quang, 2014. "Determinants of banking crisis in developing countries," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 4(1), pages 26-36.
    6. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/223, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Isik, Ihsan & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2003. "Financial disruption and bank productivity: The 1994 experience of Turkish banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 291-320.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/106, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Adam Koronowski, 2014. "Dual Currency System as a Solution to the Eurozone Crisis," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-23.
    10. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Matovnikov Mikhail, 2003. "The ups and downs of banking system in transition," EERC Working Paper Series 99-244e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

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