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The Political Economy of Growth-Inflation Transmission: The Case of Iran


  • Khashadourian Edmund

    (University of Phoenix)

  • Grammy Abbas P

    (Department of Economics, California State University)


After detrending Iran’s growth rates into stochastic and deterministic components and by decomposing nominal shocks into inflation and real output growth, 80% of the demand side shocks are found to be absorbed by price increases. This finding would cast doubt on the compatibility between inflation and growth targets outlined in the third five-year economic plan of the country. The simulation results here suggest that if the plan were constrained to a 6% real growth target, Iran’s chronic double-digit inflation rate would further accelerate. Hence, expansionary policies aiming at achieving the plan’s targets would move the economy along a near-vertical line Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Khashadourian Edmund & Grammy Abbas P, 2004. "The Political Economy of Growth-Inflation Transmission: The Case of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 22-34, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:2:y:2004:i:2:n:2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1996. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in Iran," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-176.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    4. Mazarei, Adnan, Jr, 1996. "The Iranian Economy under the Islamic Republic: Institutional Change and Macroeconomic Performance (1979-1990)," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 289-314, May.
    5. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Torbjorn I. Becker, 1999. "Common Trends and Structural Change; A Dynamic Macro Model for the Pre- and Postrevolution Islamic Republic of Iran," IMF Working Papers 99/82, International Monetary Fund.
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