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Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing

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  • Fischer Black

Abstract

Using a simple conventional model with additive separable utility and constant elasticity, we can explain mean reversion and consumption smoothing. The model uses the price of risk and wealth as state variables, but has only one stochastic variable. The price of risk rises temporarily as wealth falls. We also distinguish between risk aversion and the consumption elasticity of marginal utility. We can use the model to match estimates of the average values of consumption volatility, wealth volatility, mean reversion, the growth rate of consumption, the real interest rate, and the market risk premium.

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  • Fischer Black, 1989. "Mean Reversion and Consumption Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2946
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. McKenzie & Robert W. Faff, 2003. "The Determinants of Conditional Autocorrelation in Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 259-274, June.
    2. McKenzie, Michael D. & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Evidence of an asymmetry in the relationship between volatility and autocorrelation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 22-40.
    3. Alan J. Marcus, 1989. "An Equilibrium Theory of Excess Volatility and Mean Reversion in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 3106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fischer Black, 1989. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," NBER Working Papers 2947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Catherine Anitha Manohar & Ivan F. Julio, 2020. "Overreaction in the REITs Market: New Evidence from Quantile Autoregression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, November.

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