Convergence of International Output Movements
This paper explores the convergence of real per capita output in advanced industrialized economies. We start by observing that in a stochastic environment. convergence in per capita GDP requires that permanent shocks to one econ~ be associated with permanent shocks to other economies. Convergence is a natural outcome, of models where exogenous technical change migrates across countries with similar microeconomic specifications. Conversely, in a world where some component of permanent output movements is due to technical change whereas other components are due to domestic factors. national economies may diverge over time. we formalize a general definition of convergence using the notions of unit roots and cointegration developed in the time series literature. We construct bivariate and multivariate tests of convergence across advanced industrialized economies. Our evidence indicates that one cannot reject the no convergence null. Further. the estimated time series representation of cross-country output deviations exhibits substantial persistence. These results suggest that previous empirical work on convergence has neglected some aspects of the null hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||May 1991|
|Publication status:||published as Bernard, Andrew B. and Steven N. Durlauf. "Convergence In International Output," Jouranl of Applied Econometrics, 1995, v10(2), 97-108.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Cogley, Timothy, 1990.
"International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output,"
Journal of Political Economy,
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- Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Scholarly Articles 3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
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