P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail
This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.
Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): Fall ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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NBER Working Papers
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- John R. Walter, 1989. "Monetary aggregates: a user's guide," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jan, pages 20-28.
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- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Modeling trends," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 22, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
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