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Inflationsprognosen für den Euro-Raum: wie gut sind P*-Modelle?

  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Susanne Bröck
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    Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die Grundlagen des P*-Ansatzes und vergleicht seine Prognoseleistung mit derjenigen nicht-monetärer Inflationsindikatoren für den Euro-Raum. Die Relevanz der Quantitätstheorie, die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage und die Rolle von Geldmengen im Transmissionsmechanismus werden auf theoretischer Ebene für das P*-Konzept diskutiert. Es zeigt sich, dass es vor allem eine empirische Frage ist, ob das P*-Modell anderen Inflationsindikatoren überlegen ist. Für einen solchen Prognosevergleich werden zunächst alternative Inflationsindikatoren ausgewählt und drei verschiedene Varianten des P*-Modells vorgestellt. Es wird herausgearbeitet, dass der P*-Ansatz einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Inflationsprognose für den Euro-Raum leisten kann, aber Gleiches gilt auch für eine Reihe anderer Indikatoren.

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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.69.1.69
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    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 69 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 69-89

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:69-10-5
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