IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v46y2014i14p1565-1581.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol--gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Patricio Samanez
  • L鯠da Rocha Ferreira
  • Carolina Caldas do Nascimento
  • Let de Almeida Costa
  • Claudio R. S. Bisso

Abstract

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Patricio Samanez & L鯠da Rocha Ferreira & Carolina Caldas do Nascimento & Let de Almeida Costa & Claudio R. S. Bisso, 2014. "Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol--gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1565-1581, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:14:p:1565-1581
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.877573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2013.877573
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2013.877573?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    3. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    4. Bastian-Pinto, Carlos & Brando, Luiz & Hahn, Warren J., 2009. "Flexibility as a source of value in the production of alternative fuels: The ethanol case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 411-422, May.
    5. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    6. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    7. Alceu S. Camargo & Abraham S. O. Yu & Paulo Tromboni de S. Nascimento & Jose Vidal Belinetti & José J. Marques & Leandro J. Morilhas, 2011. "Option Value Embedded on the Brazilian Flex and Sustainable Vehicles," International Journal of Social Ecology and Sustainable Development (IJSESD), IGI Global, vol. 2(3), pages 18-33, July.
    8. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Slade, Margaret E., 2001. "Valuing Managerial Flexibility: An Application of Real-Option Theory to Mining Investments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-233, March.
    2. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    3. Dannenberg, Henry & Ehrenfeld, Wilfried, 2010. "Stochastic Income Statement Planning and Emissions Trading," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2021. "Project Valuation: Price Forecasts Bound to Discount Rates," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 139-152, June.
    5. Warren J. Hahn & James S. Dyer, 2011. "A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two-Factor Mean-Reverting Stochastic Processes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 220-232, September.
    6. Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube & Ariel Levy, 2019. "Recent movement of oil prices and future scenarios [Movimentos recentes dos preços do petróleo e os cenários futuros]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 29(1), pages 223-248, January-A.
    7. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    8. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    10. Nader Karimi & Hirbod Assa & Erfan Salavati & Hojatollah Adibi, 2023. "Calibration of Storage Model by Multi-Stage Statistical and Machine Learning Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1437-1455, December.
    11. Schwartz, Eduardo, 1998. "Valuing long-term commodity assets," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-99.
    12. Ozorio, Luiz de Magalhães & Bastian-Pinto, Carlos de Lamare & Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2013. "Investment decision in integrated steel plants under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-64.
    13. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    14. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    15. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Ke Tang, 2012. "Time-varying long-run mean of commodity prices and the modeling of futures term structures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 781-790, April.
    17. Taylor-de-Lima, Reynaldo L.N. & Gerbasi da Silva, Arthur José & Legey, Luiz F.L. & Szklo, Alexandre, 2018. "Evaluation of economic feasibility under uncertainty of a thermochemical route for ethanol production in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 363-376.
    18. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2021. "Average crossing time: An alternative characterization of mean aversion and reversion," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 903-944, July.
    20. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:14:p:1565-1581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.