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Efficient Market Hypothesis: Some Evidences from Emerging European Forex Markets

Author

Listed:
  • S. Anoop Kumar
  • Bandi Kamaiah

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the presence of weak form efficiency in the forex markets of a set of select European emerging markets namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Slovenia using the monthly NEER data ranging from jan-1994 to Dec-2013. We employ a two step comprehensive methodology where in the first place we test for weak form efficiency using a family of individual and joint variance ratio tests. The results show that while the markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria may be weak form efficient at a shorter lag, the other six markets are not informationally efficient. In the next stage, we estimate a measure of relative efficiency to show the extent to which a market is weak-form inefficient. From the results, it is found that the forex markets of Croatia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria are least weak form inefficient compared to others. The findings of the study are of relevance as it shows that even after roughly two decades of free market economic policies, majority of the forex markets in the area remains informationally inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Anoop Kumar & Bandi Kamaiah, 2014. "Efficient Market Hypothesis: Some Evidences from Emerging European Forex Markets," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 27-44, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:52:p:27-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Willa W. & Deo, Rohit S., 2006. "The Variance Ratio Statistic At Large Horizons," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 206-234, April.
    2. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    4. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    5. Deo, Rohit S. & Richardson, Matthew, 2003. "On The Asymptotic Power Of The Variance Ratio Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 231-239, April.
    6. Abdullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2009. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asia," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 295-305.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    efficiency; Forex markets; Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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