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Asymmetric Volatility Dynamics: Evidence From the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Author

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  • Okay, Nesrin

Abstract

This paper considers estimating the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with the mean following an ARMA (1,7) process, and the conditional variance with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by ARCH models. The volatility is measured by a linear GARCH and an EGARCH process. Our results suggests that EGARCH provides better estimates than a linear standard GARCH model. The EGARCH also can capture most of the asymmetry, supporting the hypothesis that negative return shocks cause higher volatility than positive return shocks at the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Okay, Nesrin, 1998. "Asymmetric Volatility Dynamics: Evidence From the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 52812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52812
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52812/1/MPRA_paper_52812.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold & Lopez, "undated". "Modeling Volatility Dynamics," Home Pages _062, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    4. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    6. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    7. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    8. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-1443, September.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; EGARCH; Istanbul Stock Exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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