Low-Frequency Waves and the Medium to Long-Term US Stock Market Outlook
In this paper we provide compelling evidence of cyclical mean reversion and multiperiod stock return predictability over horizons of about 30 years with a half-life of about 15 years. This implies that the US stock market follows a long-term rhythm where a period of above average returns tends to be followed by a period of below average returns. We demonstrate that this long-term stock market rhythm moves in lockstep with corresponding long-term economic, social, and political rhythms in the US. Assuming that the past relationship between these rhythms will hold unaltered in the future, we provide the medium to long-term stock market outlook.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006.
"Efficient tests of stock return predictability,"
3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
- Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, 04.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- Campbell, John Y., 1987.
"Stock returns and the term structure,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
NBER Working Papers
1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Kuznets, 1954. "Concepts and Assumptions in Long-Term Projections of National Product," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Range Economic Projection, pages 7-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.2250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.