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Quel taux d’actualisation pour le long terme ?

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  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

[eng] What discount rate for the long term ? . In the sacrifices we have made to improve the future, is it better to protect the distant future by selecting a discount rate that decreases over time as certain ecologists and philosophers have recommended ? This would involve a much more important taking into account of the greenhouse effect and nuclear waste in our cost-benefit analyses to the detriment of public investment for more immediate benefits such as the improvement of the transport and education infrastructure. In this article we will demonstrate how the classical theory of finance allows this complex question to be answered in a positive way. . JEL classifications : D99, Q01 [fre] Dans nos sacrifices pour améliorer l’avenir, faut-il favoriser le futur le plus éloigné en sélectionnant un taux d’actualisation décroissant avec l’horizon temporel, comme le recommandent certains écologistes et philosophes ? Ceci impliquerait une prise en compte plus importante de l’effet de serre et des déchets nucléaires dans nos analyses coût-bénéfice, au détriment d’investissements publics aux bénéfices plus immédiats comme l’amélioration de l’infrastructure de transport ou l’éducation. Dans cet article, nous montrons comment la théorie classique de la finance permet de répondre à cette question complexe de façon positive. . Classification JEL : D99, Q01

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier, 2002. "Quel taux d’actualisation pour le long terme ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 66(2), pages 253-267.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2002_num_66_2_3756
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2002.3756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    2. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-518, June.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August.
    5. Ogaki, Masao & Zhang, Qiang, 2001. "Decreasing Relative Risk Aversion and Tests of Risk Sharing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 515-526, March.
    6. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    7. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time Horizon and the Discount Rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 463-473, December.
    8. E. S. Phelps & R. A. Pollak, 1968. "On Second-Best National Saving and Game-Equilibrium Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 185-199.
    9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    10. Robert B. Barsky & F. Thomas Juster & Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-579.
    11. Arrow, Kenneth J & Lind, Robert C, 1970. "Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 364-378, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D99 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Other
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • D99 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Other
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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