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Discounting and Divergence of Opinion

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Michel Marin

    () (SELECT - Model selection in statistical learning - Inria Saclay - Ile de France - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LMO - Laboratoire de Mathématiques d'Orsay - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to adopt a general equilibrium model and determine the socially efficient discount factor, risk free rate and discount rate when there are heterogeneous anticipations about the growth of the economy as well as heterogeneous time preference rates. Among others we tackle the following questions. Is the socially efficient discount factor an arithmetic average of the individual subjectively anticipated discount factors? More generally, can the Arrow-Debreu prices, the risk free rates, the subjectively expected socially efficient discount factors and discount rates be obtained as an average of the individual subjectively anticipated ones? Can beliefs dispersion be analyzed as a sort of additional risk or uncertainty leading to possibly lower discount rates? Is it socially efficient, when diversity of opinion is taken into account, to reduce the discount rate per year for more distant horizons? If so, what is the trajectory of the decline?

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Jean-Michel Marin & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Discounting and Divergence of Opinion," Post-Print halshs-00176636, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00176636
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00176636v3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jukka Isohätälä & Feodor Kusmartsev & Alistair Milne & Donald Robertson, 2015. "Leverage Constraints and Real Interest Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 83-109, December.
    2. Roman Muraviev, 2013. "Market selection with learning and catching up with the Joneses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 273-304, April.
    3. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    4. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
    5. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2009. "Cognitive biases and the representative agent," Working Papers halshs-00488570, HAL.
    6. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    7. Moritz Drupp & Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2015. "Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate," GRI Working Papers 196a, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    8. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Gamma discounters are short-termist," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 83-90.
    9. Geoffrey Heal & Antony Millner, 2013. "Discounting under Disagreement," NBER Working Papers 18999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Aggregation of Discount Rates: an Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers halshs-00394035, HAL.
    11. Jaksa Cvitanic & Elyès Jouini & Semyon Malamud & Clotilde Napp, 2011. "Financial Markets Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 285-321.
    12. Antony Millner & Geoffrey Heal, 2015. "Collective intertemporal choice: time consistency vs. time invariance," GRI Working Papers 220, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    13. Mark Freeman & Ben Groom, 2015. "Using equity premium survey data to estimate future wealth," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 665-693, November.
    14. Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2015. "Positively Gamma Discounting: Combining the Opinions of Experts on the Social Discount Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1015-1024, June.
    15. Maureen L. Cropper & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & William A. Pizer, 2014. "Declining Discount Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 538-543, May.
    16. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2014. "How to aggregate experts' discount rates: An equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 235-243.
    17. Alin OPREANA & Simona VINEREAN, 2015. "Analysis of the Economic Research Context after the Outbreak of the Economic Crisis of 2007-2009," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 77-92.
    18. Dorje C. Brody & Lane P. Hughston, 2013. "Social Discounting and the Long Rate of Interest," Papers 1306.5145, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.

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    Keywords

    discount rate; risk free rate;

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