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Consommation-revenu permanent : un regard d'économètre

  • Laurence Bloch
  • Françoise Maurel
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    [eng] Consumption - Permanent Income: An Econometrician's Standpoint, by Laurence Bloch, Françoise Maurel. The purpose of this paper is to show how the development of new econometric techniques has resulted in new approaches and solutions in consumer theory. The theoretical context of the permanent income model under rational expectations (Hall, 1978) is first determined. The major statistical properties of the French series are given which are helpful in constructing a consumption model. Anumber of empirical tests are run on the permanent income model under rational expectations (Hall, 1978, Flavin, 1981). Using French data, we come to the same paradoxical conclusion as Deaton did, according to whom consumption is too "smooth" to be compatible with the permanent income theory. A number of extensions of the model are then developed and empirical tests on the permanent income model under rational expectations hypothesis are run. [fre] Consommation-revenu permanent : un regard d'économètre, par Laurence Bloch, Françoise Maurel. Le but de cet article est de présenter comment le développement de nouvelles techniques économétriques a suscité des approches et des réponses nouvelles dans la théorie du consommateur. Le cadre théorique du modèle de revenu permanent sous anticipations rationnelles (Hall, 1978) est d'abord défini. Les principales propriétés statistiques des séries françaises, utiles pour modéliser la consommation, sont présentées. Différents tests empiriques du modèle de revenu permanent sous anticipations rationnelles (Hall, 1978, Flavin, 1981) sont effectués. Sur données françaises on aboutit au même paradoxe que Deaton, selon lequel la consommation est trop "lisse" pour être compatible avec la théorie du revenu permanent. Puis diverses extensions du modèle sont développées, et des tests empiriques de l'hypothèse du revenu permanent sous anticipations rationnelles sont menés. [spa] Consumo-ingresos permanentes : perspectiva econométrica, por Laurence Bloch y Françoise Maurel. El presente artículo tiene por objeto explicar cómo, el desarrollo de las nuevas técnicas econométricas, ha dado lugar a nuevos enfoques y aportado nuevas respuestas a la teoría del consumidor. En primer lugar se define el marco teórico del modelo de ingresos permanentes con anticipations racionales (Hall, 1978). Acto seguido se presentan las principales propiedades estadísticas de las series francesas utilizadas para modelizar el consumo y se efectûan diversas pruebas empíricas del modelo de ingresos permanentes con anticipations racionales (Hall, 1978, Flavin, 1981). Con los datos franceses se obtiene la misma paradoja que Deaton, según la cual el consumo es demasiado "suave" para ser compatible con la teoría de los ingresos permanentes. Por último se desarrollan diversas extensiones del modelo y se realizan pruebas empíricas de la hipótesis de los ingresos permanentes con anticipations racionales. [ger] Verbrauch und Dauereinkommen : ein ökonometrischer Ansatz, von Laurence Bloch, Françoise Maurel. Dieser Artikel möchte darstellen, wie die Entwicklung neuer ökonometrischer Methoden neue Ansätze und Ergebnisse in der Theorie des Verbraucherverhaltens hervorgerufen hat. Zuerst wird der theoretische Rahmen des Dauereinkommensmodells auf der Basis rationeller Erwartungen definiert (Hall, 1978). Die wichtigsten für die Modellierung des Verbrauchs geeigneten statistischen Merkmale der französischen Reihen werden vorgestellt. Es werden verschiedene Tests des Dauereinkommensmodells auf der Basis rationeller Erwartungen durchgeführt (Hall, 1978, Flavin, 1981). Mit den französischen Daten gelangt man zu demselben Paradox wie Deaton, demzufolge der Verbrauch zu "glatt" ist, als dass er mit der Theorie des Dauereinkommens vereinbar wäre. Ferner werden mehrere Erweiterungen des Modells entwickelt, und die Hypothèse des Dauereinkommens wird auf der Basis rationeller Erwartungen empirischen Überprüfungen unterzogen.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 99 (1991)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 113-144

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5245
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1991.5245
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