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Le mystère de la consommation perdue

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  • Loïc Cadiou

Abstract

[eng] The Puzzle of lost Consumption. Loic Cadiou. The procyclical movement of the household savings rate has reinfor-. ced the slowdown of the French economy from 1990 to 1993. This. movement was both substantial and unexpected, since households' beha-. viour usually smoothes domestic demand fluctuations : households cut. back their savings in periods of slowdowns, which they then reconstitute. when recoveries take place.. This study shows that this change of attitude as regards consumption. and savings is very likely due to variations of the unemployment rate. which represent households' precautionary savings behaviour.. The importance of financial income during this period also seems to. have influenced the savings rate because it has a lower consumption. propensity than other incomes.. Finally, financial deregulation, which increased competition between. credit institutions, may partly explain the fall of the savings rate in. the 80's. However, this is not a strong result, since it is based on the. introduction of an ad hoc variable representative of deregulation. The. latter could have increased the significance of interest rates on house-. holds' savings behaviour. [fre] En France, l'évolution procyclique du taux d'épargne des. ménages de 1990 à 1993 a été aussi marquée qu'inattendue,. renforçant le ralentissement de l'activité économique observé. durant cette période. En général, le comportement des ménages. contribue, au contraire, à amortir les variations de la demande. intérieure. En phase de ralentissement, les ménages puisent sur. une épargne qu'ils reconstituent une fois la croissance retrouvée.. Cette étude montre que la modification de l'arbitrage entre. consommation et épargne est en partie expliquée par les variations. du taux de chômage à l'origine du comportement d'épargne de. précaution des ménages.. Par ailleurs, l'importance des revenus financiers sur cette. période a vraisemblablement influencé le taux d'épargne par le. biais d'une propension à consommer ce type de revenus inférieure. à celle des revenus non financiers.. Enfin, il est possible que la déréglementation financière, en. accroissant la concurrence dans le secteur de la distribution de. crédits, explique une partie de la baisse du taux d'épargne dans les. années quatre-vingt. Ce résultat est toutefois fragile car il repose. sur l'introduction d'une variable « ad hoc » représentant la dérégle-. mentation. Cette dernière aurait par ailleurs rendu significative. l'impact des taux d'intérêt sur le comportement d'épargne des. ménages.

Suggested Citation

  • Loïc Cadiou, 1995. "Le mystère de la consommation perdue," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(1), pages 147-164.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1394
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Yaari, Menahem E., 1976. "A law of large numbers in the theory of consumer's choice under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 202-217, April.
    7. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-1443, November.
    8. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    12. Françoise Charpin, 1988. "Le modèle de cycle de vie, une approche numérique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 25(1), pages 173-198.
    13. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    14. Sargent, Thomas J, 1977. "Observations on Improper Methods of Simulating and Teaching Friedman's Time Series Consumption Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 445-462, June.
    15. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    16. Laurence Bloch & Françoise Maurel, 1991. "Consommation-revenu permanent : un regard d'économètre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 113-144.
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    Cited by:

    1. Françoise Charpin, 1998. "Une analyse économétrique multivariée du comportement des ménages," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 66(1), pages 199-227.
    2. Corinne Houizot & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Francisco Serranito, 2000. "Plus-values, consommation et épargne. Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(1), pages 197-240.
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1784 is not listed on IDEAS

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