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Plus-values, consommation et épargne. Une estimation de l'effet richesse aux États- Unis et au Royaume- Uni

  • Corinne Houizot
  • Francisco Serranito
  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Catherine Mathieu

[eng] Wealth effects and consumer spending in the US and the UK Corinne Houizot, Helene Baudchon, Catherine Mathieu and Francisco Serranito The sharp rise in stock market priees over the second half of the 90's is said to have boosted household consumption in the US. Changes in housing and net financial wealth are also said to have had an impact on household consumption in the UK. This paper examines the impact of wealth effects on consumer spending in these countries. Several definitions of wealth are considered. Our empirical results show that a dollar's increase in net financial wealth generates a 5 cents' increase in consumption. The marginal propensity to consume out of net wealth is found to be similar the UK. Wealth effects explain the fall the household saving rate over the second half of the 90's.They have also played significant role in the UK. JEL codes : E 21, E 27 [fre] La forte hausse des cours boursiers, observée dans la seconde moitié des années 1990, est fréquemment évoquée pour expliquer le dynamisme, au cours de cette période, de la consommation des ménages américains et britanniques, et son corollaire, la baisse du taux d'épargne. Cet article analyse les déterminants de la consommation des ménages dans ces deux pays, et en particulier l'importance de l'effet richesse. Il comporte trois parties : un survol des évolutions de la consommation, de l'épargne et de la richesse des ménages au cours des quarante dernières années ; un rappel de la théorie et des modèles à tester ; enfin la présentation des résultats économétriques. Aux États-Unis, d'après nos estimations, une augmentation d'un dollar de la richesse des ménages conduit à un accroissement de la consommation de l'ordre de 5,5 cents, soit des résultats proches de ceux publiés depuis Ando et Modigliani (1963). La forte baisse du taux d'épargne dans la période récente proviendrait essentiellement de la hausse de la Bourse. Au Royaume- Uni, une livre de richesse financière ou immobilière supplémentaire serait consommée à hauteur de 5 pence environ. Les fluctuations de la richesse immobilière résultant de la bulle immobilière de la fin des années 1980 et de son éclatement auraient fortement influencé le taux d'épargne. L'augmentation de la richesse financière aurait contribué positivement à la baisse du taux d'épargne au cours des dernières années.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 73 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 197-240

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_73_1_1593
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1593
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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  1. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, December.
  2. Martha Starr-McCluer, 1998. "Stock market wealth and consumer spending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
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  6. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
  7. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
  9. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245.
  10. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  11. Anindya Banerjee & Juan J. Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1995. "On the Power of Cointegration Tests: Dimension Invariance vs. Common Factors," Working Papers 922, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
  13. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
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  15. Loïc Cadiou, 1995. "Le mystère de la consommation perdue," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(1), pages 147-164.
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