On the distribution of the sample autocorrelation coefficients
Sample autocorrelation coefficients are widely used to test the randomness of a time series. Despite its unsatisfactory performance, the asymptotic normal distribution is often used to approximate the distribution of the sample autocorrelation coefficients. This is mainly due to the lack of an efficient approach in obtaining the exact distribution of sample autocorrelation coefficients. In this paper, we provide an efficient algorithm for evaluating the exact distribution of the sample autocorrelation coefficients. Under the multivariate elliptical distribution assumption, the exact distribution as well as exact moments and joint moments of sample autocorrelation coefficients are presented. In addition, the exact mean and variance of various autocorrelation-based tests are provided. Actual size properties of the Box-Pierce and Ljung-Box tests are investigated, and they are shown to be poor when the number of lags is moderately large relative to the sample size. Using the exact mean and variance of the Box-Pierce test statistic, we propose an adjusted Box-Pierce test that has a far superior size property than the traditional Box-Pierce and Ljung-Box tests.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1984.
"Some Robust Exact Results on Sample Autocorrelations and Tests of Randomness,"
Cahiers de recherche
8412, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Roy, Roch, 1985. "Some robust exact results on sample autocorrelations and tests of randomness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 257-273, September.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988.
"Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Tom Doan, . "VRATIO: RATS procedure to implement variance ratio unit root test procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00231, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zeng-Hua Lu & Maxwell King, 2002. "Improving The Numerical Technique For Computing The Accumulated Distribution Of A Quadratic Form In Normal Variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 149-165.
- Ali, Mukhtar M, 1984. "Distributions of the Sample Autocorrelations When Observations Are from a Stationary Autoregressive-Moving-Average Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 271-78, July.
- Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
- Ansley, Craig F. & Kohn, Robert & Shively, Thomas S., 1992. "Computing p-values for the generalized Durbin-Watson and other invariant test statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 277-300.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Magnus, J.R., 1978. "The moments of products of quadratic forms in normal variables," Other publications TiSEM 17c77a44-1789-4cf4-a382-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Magnus, J.R., 1986. "The exact moments of a ratio of quadratic forms in normal variables," Other publications TiSEM c6725407-ac3c-44fd-b6d1-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Kan, Raymond, 2008. "From moments of sum to moments of product," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 542-554, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:154:y:2010:i:2:p:101-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.