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Are stock returns still mean-reverting?

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  • Mukherji, Sandip
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    Abstract

    This study uses a powerful nonparametric block bootstrap method and fresh data to examine the unresolved issue of mean reversion in stock returns. The results show that both large and small company stocks experienced significant mean reversion in returns for periods of 1 through 5 years during 1926-1966. In 1967-2007, there was significant mean reversion in 5-year returns of large company stocks, and 1-, 4-, and 5-year returns of small company stocks. The findings indicate that, although mean reversion in stock returns has weakened in recent decades, it persists, particularly for small company stocks.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(10)00036-4
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 22-27

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:22-27
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

    Keywords: Mean reversion Stock returns Block bootstrap;

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    1. Daniel, Kent, 2001. "The power and size of mean reversion tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 493-535, December.
    2. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1991. " Seasonality in Stock Price Mean Reversion: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1427-44, September.
    5. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
    6. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    7. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, 04.
    9. Reinganum, Marc R., 1983. "The anomalous stock market behavior of small firms in January : Empirical tests for tax-loss selling effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-104, June.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
    11. McQueen, Grant, 1992. "Long-Horizon Mean-Reverting Stock Prices Revisited," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 1-18, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buckley, Winston S. & Long, Hongwei, 2015. "A discontinuous mispricing model under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 944-955.
    2. Ghada Abbas, 2014. "Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 317-325, October.
    3. Huffman, Stephen P. & Moll, Cliff R., 2013. "An examination of the relation between asymmetric risk measures, prior returns and expected daily stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 8-19.

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