IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/ijfr11/v3y2012i1p101-104.html

Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk for Foreign Trade: The Study in India during the Globalization Era of 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Rudra Prakash Pradhan

Abstract

The paper investigates the random walk properties of foreign trade. The data used in the empirical test correspond to monthly exports and imports of India in the globalization era of 1990s. The test of random walk employed in this study is the variance ratio test, developed by Lo and Mackinlay. The empirical results indicate that the series contain large permanent component and small temporary component for both exports and imports. This suggests that foreign trade follows a random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudra Prakash Pradhan, 2012. "Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk for Foreign Trade: The Study in India during the Globalization Era of 1990s," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(1), pages 101-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:3:y:2012:i:1:p:101-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/714/351
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/714
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Urrutia, Jorge L., 1992. "Variance ratio tests of random walk for foreign exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 457-465, April.
    2. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    3. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    4. Elsabe Loots, 2002. "Globalisation, Emerging Markets and the South African Economy*(1)," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(2), pages 123-132, March.
    5. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    6. Smith,Anthony D., 1992. "International Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521431033, January.
    7. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    8. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    11. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    2. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," IIE, Working Papers 020, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    3. Luger, Richard, 2003. "Exact non-parametric tests for a random walk with unknown drift under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 259-276, August.
    4. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," Department of Economics, Working Papers 020, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. José Carlos Dias & Luís Lopes & Vitor Martins & José Manuel Benzinho, 2004. "Efficiency tests in the Iberian stock markets," Finance 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Anoop S. KUMAR & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Efficiency, non-linearity and chaos: evidences from BRICS foreign exchange markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 103-118, Spring.
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    8. Chu, Quentin C. & Ding, David K. & Pyun, C. S., 1997. "The opening price behavior: Foreign exchange futures market versus equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-35.
    9. Shyh-wei Chen, 2009. "Random walks in asian foreign exchange markets:evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1296-1307.
    10. Liam Gallagher, 1999. "A multi-country analysis of the temporary and permanent components of stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 129-142.
    11. Graham Smith, 2009. "Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 249-262.
    12. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    13. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 27-35, January.
    14. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    15. Joao Sousa Andrade & Irina Syssoyeva-Masson, 2016. "Investigating the presence of long memory in debt series and its relation with growth," EcoMod2016 9627, EcoMod.
    16. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    17. Patrick A. Groenendijk & André Lucas & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "A Hybrid Joint Moment Ratio Test for Financial Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-104/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2014. "Financial liberalization and emerging stock market efficiency: an empirical analysis of structural changes," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 230-245, September.
    19. Lee, Chun I. & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2000. "Efficiency tests in the French derivatives market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 787-807, May.
    20. Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2009. "Deregulation and liberalization of the Chinese stock market and the improvement of market efficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 843-857, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:3:y:2012:i:1:p:101-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gina Perry (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://ijfr.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.