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Citations for "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models"

by Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken

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  1. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2015. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3540-3558, July.
  2. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  5. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder K, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
  8. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 08/76, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  10. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Post-Print hal-01386006, HAL.
  11. Hui Guo, 2003. "On the out-of-sample predictability of stock market returns," Working Papers 2002-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
  13. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. repec:lan:wpaper:3046 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
  17. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
  18. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  19. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  23. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
  24. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
  25. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  26. Andres Fernandez & Norman R. Swanson, 2009. "Real-time datasets really do make a difference: definitional change, data release, and forecasting," Working Papers 09-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  27. Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra & Hao Yu, 2015. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1619-1641, June.
  28. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 0214, European Central Bank.
  29. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
  31. Tanya, Molodtsova & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David, 2008. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," MPRA Paper 11348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Paper Series 42_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  33. Peter Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the Best Volatility Models:The Model Confidence Set Approach," Working Papers 2003-05, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  34. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
  35. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  36. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  37. Emilios C. Galariotis & Evangelos Giouvris, 2015. "On the stock market liquidity and the business cycle: A multi country approach," Post-Print hal-01119042, HAL.
  38. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  39. Saša ŽIKOVIÆ & Randall K. FILER, 2013. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 327-359, August.
  40. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  41. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  42. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Working Papers in Economics 10/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  43. Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
  44. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 505-516.
  45. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  46. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0322, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004.
  47. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  48. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  49. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  50. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  51. Forrest, David & Sanz, Ismael & Tena, J.D., 2010. "Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 576-588, July.
  52. Richard Ashley & Haichun Ye, 2012. "On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4221-4238, November.
  53. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. Boucher, Christophe, 2007. "Asymmetric adjustment of stock prices to their fundamental value and the predictability of US stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 339-347, June.
  55. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  56. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2013. "Tail Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 19375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Intraday volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
  58. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  59. Yu-chin Chen & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Eric Zivot, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation using Commodity Price Aggregates," Working Papers UWEC-2011-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  60. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
  61. Imene Mootamri & Mohamed Boutahar & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Post-Print halshs-00390134, HAL.
  62. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  63. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
  64. Galbraith, John W. & KI[#x1e63]Inbay, Turgut, 2005. "Content horizons for conditional variance forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 249-260.
  65. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2007. "How well does employment predict output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 433-446.
  66. West, Kenneth D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 495-497, December.
  67. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics," CREATES Research Papers 2012-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  68. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Predictive Density Accuracy Tests," Working Papers wp04-16, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  69. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  70. Bork, Lasse & Møller, Stig V., 2015. "Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
  71. Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
  72. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
  75. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
  76. Wang, Mu-Chun, 2008. "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  77. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers," Post-Print halshs-00565229, HAL.
  78. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
  79. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2010. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 15-01, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  80. Pavol Povala & Anna Cieslak, 2012. "Understanding bond risk premia," 2012 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  81. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  82. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  83. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
  84. Robledo, Carlos W. & Zapata, Hector O. & McCracken, Michael, 2001. "New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20686, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  85. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2010. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Review of Some Recent Developments," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-729, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  86. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  87. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  88. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  89. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
  90. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
  91. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  92. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  93. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
  94. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  95. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2006. "Consumption, (Dis)Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  96. Thomas B. Götz & Alain Hecq & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2014. "Forecasting Mixed‐Frequency Time Series with ECM‐MIDAS Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 198-213, 04.
  97. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
  98. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  99. Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  100. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working papers 2011-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2012.
  101. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  102. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P. & Stanescu, Silvia, 2016. "Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 458-474.
  103. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the Euro Area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Sciences Po publications 2004-14, Sciences Po.
  104. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  105. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  106. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Detrending Persistent Predictors," Post-Print halshs-00587775, HAL.
  107. Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  108. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  109. Heejoon Han & Myung D. Park, 2013. "Comparison of Realized Measure and Implied Volatility in Forecasting Volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 522-533, 09.
  110. repec:wyi:journl:002135 is not listed on IDEAS
  111. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  112. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  113. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  114. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  115. Dovern, Jonas & Ziegler, Christina, 2008. "Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  116. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?," International Finance 0404014, EconWPA.
  117. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  118. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.
  119. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2012. "On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 934-955, 09.
  120. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
  121. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
  122. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
  123. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
  124. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  125. Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
  126. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "The Empirical Risk-Return Relation: A Factor Analysis Approach," NBER Working Papers 11477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  127. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
  128. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  129. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  130. Barbara Rossi, 2012. "The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting," Economics Working Papers 1405, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  131. Philip Franses, 2014. "Evaluating CPB’s Forecasts," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 215-221, September.
  132. L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
  133. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
  134. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
  135. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  136. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  137. Wei Dong & Deokwoo Nam, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Individual Good’s Price Misalignment: Some Preliminary Evidence of Long-Horizon Predictability," Discussion Papers 11-8, Bank of Canada.
  138. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  139. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models," Working Paper 1121, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  140. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  141. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  142. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
  143. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  144. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
  145. Wong, Woon K. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Market imperfections and the information content of implied and realized volatility," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-79, January.
  146. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
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