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Citations for "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models"

by Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W.

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  1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Dissecting Models’ Forecasting Performance," KOF Working papers 15-397, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  3. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  4. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2010. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Review of Some Recent Developments," Working Papers in Economics 10/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Burns, Kelly & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Enhancing the forecasting power of exchange rate models by introducing nonlinearity: Does it work?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-39.
  6. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
  7. Richard Ashley & Haichun Ye, 2012. "On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4221-4238, November.
  8. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Predictive Density Accuracy Tests," Working Papers wp04-16, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  9. di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
  10. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:8:d:64253 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  14. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
  15. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(3), pages 441-450.
  16. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  17. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," MPRA Paper 46387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Papers 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  21. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
  22. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
  23. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
  24. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  25. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working papers 2011-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2012.
  26. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Pagano Patrizio & Pisani Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
  28. Martyna Marczak & Tommaso Proietti, 2014. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," CEIS Research Paper 325, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Aug 2014.
  29. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-28.
  30. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," CREATES Research Papers 2012-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  31. Riane de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo stander, 2011. "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Working Papers 201134, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  32. Ekaterini Panopoulou & N. Pittis & S. Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past:Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1660306, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  33. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 4035, CESifo Group Munich.
  34. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  35. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  36. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010. "Informed trading in the Euro money market for term lending," MPRA Paper 20415, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Cai Zongwu & Chen Linna & Fang Ying, 2012. "A New Forecasting Model for USD/CNY Exchange Rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, September.
  38. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
  39. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Can commodity returns forecast Canadian sector stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-188.
  40. Saša ŽIKOVIÆ & Randall K. FILER, 2013. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 327-359, August.
  41. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  42. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  44. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  45. Forrest, David & Sanz, Ismael & Tena, J.D., 2010. "Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 576-588, July.
  46. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
  47. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
  48. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  49. Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra & Hao Yu, 2015. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1619-1641, June.
  50. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & A. Gil-Alana, Luis, 2011. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 386-409.
  51. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, 05.
  52. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
  53. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  54. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
  55. repec:zbw:iwhdps:10-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  57. Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
  58. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
  59. Robert Sollis, 2005. "Predicting returns and volatility with macroeconomic variables: evidence from tests of encompassing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 221-231.
  60. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
  61. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  62. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  63. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2012. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts:A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments," KIER Working Papers 821, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  64. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2012. "Forecasting US state-level employment growth: An amalgamation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 315-327.
  65. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  66. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  67. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  68. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money matter for U.S. inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  69. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  70. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  71. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection," Departmental Working Papers 200418, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  72. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  73. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "Ethanol and field crops: Is there a price connection?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 53-61.
  74. Kieran Burgess & Nicholas Rohde, 2013. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? Recent Evidence using Australian Data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 511-518.
  75. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  76. Valeri Voev, 2009. "On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts," CREATES Research Papers 2009-56, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  77. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
  78. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  79. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  80. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  81. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223.
  82. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
  83. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2015. "Equivalence Between Out‐of‐Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2485-2505, November.
  84. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  85. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
  86. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  87. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  88. Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics 11442, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  89. Pollet, Joshua M. & Wilson, Mungo, 2010. "Average correlation and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 364-380, June.
  90. Mu-Chun Wang, 2009. "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 167-182.
  91. Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-53, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  92. Thomas B. Götz & Alain Hecq & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2014. "Forecasting Mixed‐Frequency Time Series with ECM‐MIDAS Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 198-213, 04.
  93. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  94. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  95. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
  96. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  97. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  98. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  99. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  100. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
  101. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  102. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kortava, Ekaterina & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "A new approach to tests of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 654-667.
  103. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Can fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict exchange rates?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1251-1263.
  104. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
  105. Rothman, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9945-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  106. Carriero, Andrea & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2011. "How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 21-34, September.
  107. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  108. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  109. Arco van Oord & Howie Lin, 2005. "Molling Inter- and Intraday Payment Flows," DNB Working Papers 074, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  110. Onur Ince, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Out-of-Sample with Panel Methods and Real-Time Data," Working Papers 13-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  111. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  112. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 67-109, 02.
  113. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  114. Yang, Zihui & Zhao, Yongliang, 2014. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in India: Evidence from directed acyclic graphs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 533-540.
  115. Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  116. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  117. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2016. "The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation," MPRA Paper 68704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  118. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  119. Yan Carrière‐Swallow & Felipe Labbé, 2013. "Nowcasting with Google Trends in an Emerging Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 289-298, 07.
  120. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  121. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
  122. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  123. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation," Working Papers 2010.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  124. Bork, Lasse & Møller, Stig V., 2015. "Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
  125. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  126. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
  127. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2609-2622, September.
  128. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
  129. Dinh H B Phan & Susan S Sharma & Paresh K Narayan, . "Intraday Volatility Interaction between the Crude Oil and Equity Markets," Financial Econometics Series 2015_14, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  130. Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2011. "On the Usefulness of the Diebold-Mariano Test in the Selection of Prediction Models," Economics Series 276, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  131. L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
  132. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
  133. Hui Guo, 2006. "On the Out-of-Sample Predictability of Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 645-670, March.
  134. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 201018, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  135. Isao Ishida & Virmantas Kvedaras, 2015. "Modeling Autoregressive Processes with Moving-Quantiles-Implied Nonlinearity," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 2, January.
  136. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  137. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 297-311, June.
  138. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Working Papers 201107, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  139. Galbraith, John W. & KI[#x1e63]Inbay, Turgut, 2005. "Content horizons for conditional variance forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 249-260.
  140. repec:lan:wpaper:592830 is not listed on IDEAS
  141. Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
  142. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2016. "Comparison of Value-at-Risk models using the MCS approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 579-608, June.
  143. Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 0867, European Central Bank.
  144. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 794-807, October.
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  208. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  292. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
  293. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  294. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  295. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  296. Murat Midilic, 2016. "Estimation Of Star-Garch Models With Iteratively Weighted Least Squares," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/918, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  297. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: an Asset Pricing Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2010-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  298. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  299. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  300. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  301. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  302. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  303. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Understanding stock return predictability," Working Papers 2006-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  304. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 71-90.
  305. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
  306. J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "Simple Robust Tests for the Specification of High-Frequency Predictors of a Low-Frequency Series," Working Papers 1412, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
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  308. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Staff Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada.
  309. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P. & Stanescu, Silvia, 2016. "Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 458-474.
  310. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  311. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.
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  313. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  314. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
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  316. Awartani, Basel M.A. & Corradi, Valentina, 2005. "Predicting the volatility of the S&P-500 stock index via GARCH models: the role of asymmetries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 167-183.
  317. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
  318. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  319. Robledo, Carlos W. & Zapata, Hector O. & McCracken, Michael, 2001. "New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20686, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  320. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  321. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Model selection for forecast combination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  322. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  323. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  324. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
  325. Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2015. "Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 263-275.
  326. Ana Sequeira, 2013. "Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  327. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  328. Goncalves, Silvia & McCracken, Michael W. & Perron, Benoit, 2015. "Tests of Equal Accuracy for Nested Models with Estimated Factors," Working Papers 2015-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Aug 2016.
  329. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K. & Zhao, Gang, 2014. "The role of correlation dynamics in sector allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-12.
  330. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
  331. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  332. Dong, Wei & Nam, Deokwoo, 2013. "Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Evidence of long-horizon predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 611-636.
  333. Boucher, Christophe, 2007. "Asymmetric adjustment of stock prices to their fundamental value and the predictability of US stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 339-347, June.
  334. Ibarra, Raul, 2012. "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1305-1313.
  335. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
  336. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  337. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
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  339. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
  340. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Forecast evaluation with factor-augmented models," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  341. Fraire, Francisco & Leatham, David J., 2006. "Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk," Proceedings: 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006; Washington, DC 133082, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
  342. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  343. Ye, Haichun & Ashley, Richard & Guerard, John, 2015. "Comparing the effectiveness of traditional vs. mechanized identification methods in post-sample forecasting for a macroeconomic Granger causality analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 488-500.
  344. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  345. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  346. Meichi Huang, 2013. "Housing bubble implications: The perspective of housing price predictability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 586-596.
  347. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  348. Ren, Yu & Yuan, Yufei & Zhang, Yang, 2014. "Human capital, household capital and asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 11-22.
  349. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012. "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 908-916.
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  351. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature : forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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