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The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging

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Cited by:

  1. Lautier, Delphine & Raynaud, Franck, 2011. "Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2009-2019.
  2. Olivier Feron & Pierre Gruet, 2020. "Estimation of the number of factors in a multi-factorial Heath-Jarrow-Morton model in electricity markets," Working Papers hal-02880824, HAL.
  3. Andrés Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2015. "Commodity derivative valuation under a factor model with time-varying market prices of risk," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 75-93, April.
  4. St'ephane Goutte & Nadia Oudjane & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Variance optimal hedging for continuous time additive processes and applications," Papers 1302.1965, arXiv.org.
  5. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst, July.
  6. Azimi, Yousuf & Osanloo, Morteza & Esfahanipour, Akbar, 2013. "An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 212-223.
  7. Weijermars, R. & Sun, Z., 2018. "Regression analysis of historic oil prices: A basis for future mean reversion price scenarios," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 177-201.
  8. Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena & Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda & Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya, 2008. "Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 597-605, March.
  9. Gabriel Rodríguez & Dennis Alvaro & Ángel Guillén, 2016. "Modelling the Volatility of Commodities Prices using a Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts [Modelando la volatilidad de los precios de los commodities utilizando un modelo de volatili," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2016-414, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  10. Bent Jesper Christensen & Thomas Elgaard Jensen & Rune Mølgaard, 2007. "Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity," CREATES Research Papers 2007-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  11. Margaret Insley & Yichun Huang, 2020. "The economics of water conservation regulations under uncertainty: An application to Alberta's Lower Athabasca River Region," Working Papers 2003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
  12. A. Paliathanasis & K. Krishnakumar & K. M. Tamizhmani & P. G. L. Leach, 2015. "Lie Symmetry Analysis of the Black-Scholes-Merton Model for European Options with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 1508.06797, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
  13. G. Pritchard & G. Zakeri, 2003. "Market Offering Strategies for Hydroelectric Generators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 602-612, August.
  14. Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
  15. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
  16. Aouam, Tarik & Muthuraman, Kumar & Rardin, Ronal L., 2016. "Robust optimization policy benchmarks and modeling errors in natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 807-815.
  17. Liu, Yu-Hong & Jiang, I-Ming, 2019. "Optimal proportion decision-making for two stages investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 776-785.
  18. Power, Gabriel J. & Eaves, James & Turvey, Calum & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2017. "Catching the curl: Wavelet thresholding improves forward curve modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 312-321.
  19. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Alejandro Rodríguez & Eduardo Schwartz, 2021. "Oil price analysts' forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1351-1374, September.
  20. Marc Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2020. "Information Leakage in Energy Derivatives around News Announcements," Published Paper Series 2020-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  21. Robert Jarrow, 2010. "Convenience yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-43, April.
  22. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  23. Ingo Beyna, 2013. "The Cheyette Model Class," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Interest Rate Derivatives, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 3-15, Springer.
  24. Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
  25. John Crosby, 2008. "A multi-factor jump-diffusion model for commodities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200.
  26. Ç Haksöz & S Seshadri, 2007. "Supply chain operations in the presence of a spot market: a review with discussion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1412-1429, November.
  27. José David Gallardo Ku & Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano & Luis Alfonso Bendezú Medina, 2005. "La Problemática de los Precios de los Combustibles," Working Papers 11, Osinergmin, Gerencia de Políticas y Análisis Económico.
  28. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  29. Jilong Chen & Christian Ewald, 2017. "On the Performance of the Comonotonicity Approach for Pricing Asian Options in Some Benchmark Models from Equities and Commodities," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-32, March.
  30. Takashi Kato & Jun Sekine & Hiromitsu Yamamoto, 2014. "A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(2), pages 151-174, May.
  31. Eric Girard & Trevor Reid, 2010. "Cost Of Carry On Steroids: Application To Oil Futures Pricing," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 153-163.
  32. A. Paliathanasis & R. M. Morris & P. G. L. Leach, 2016. "Lie symmetries of (1+2) nonautonomous evolution equations in Financial Mathematics," Papers 1605.01071, arXiv.org.
  33. Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
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  35. Guoming Lai & Mulan X. Wang & Sunder Kekre & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi, 2011. "Valuation of Storage at a Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 602-616, June.
  36. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
  37. Chiarella, Carl & Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2013. "Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 989-1000.
  38. Sévi, Benoît, 2015. "Explaining the convenience yield in the WTI crude oil market using realized volatility and jumps," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 243-251.
  39. Kaffel, Bilel & Abid, Fathi, 2009. "A methodology for the choice of the best fitting continuous-time stochastic models of crude oil price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 971-1000, August.
  40. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8457.
  41. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Does investor attention matter? The attention-return relation in gold futures market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  42. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010. "Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices: A data-rich model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 409-417, March.
  43. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2010. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 95-107, September.
  44. Peilun He & Karol Binkowski & Nino Kordzakhia & Pavel Shevchenko, 2021. "On Modelling of Crude Oil Futures in a Bivariate State-Space Framework," Papers 2108.01886, arXiv.org.
  45. N. K. Nomikos & O. Soldatos, 2008. "Using Affine Jump Diffusion Models for Modelling and Pricing Electricity Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 41-71.
  46. Chuong Luong & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2016. "Modeling Dependency Of Volatility On Sampling Frequency Via Delay Equations," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-21, June.
  47. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
  48. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
  49. Bennedsen, Mikkel, 2017. "A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 301-313.
  50. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  51. Noufel Frikha & Vincent Lemaire, 2012. "Joint Modelling of Gas and Electricity spot prices," Post-Print hal-00421289, HAL.
  52. Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier, 2011. "Stochastic Surface Models for Commodity Futures: A 2D Kalman Filter Approach," BILTOKI 2011-05, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
  53. Brix, Anne Floor & Lunde, Asger & Wei, Wei, 2018. "A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 560-582.
  54. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
  55. Calum G. Turvey, 2006. "Managing food industry business and financial risks with commodity-linked credit instruments," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 523-545.
  56. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  57. Jonathan M. Godbey & Jimmy E. Hilliard, 2007. "Adjusting stacked-hedge ratios for stochastic convenience yield: a minimum variance approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 289-300.
  58. Kiyoshi Suzuki, 2018. "Optimal pair-trading strategy over long/short/square positions—empirical study," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-119, January.
  59. Alain Monfort & Olivier Féron, 2012. "Joint econometric modeling of spot electricity prices, forwards and options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 217-256, October.
  60. Fernandes, Rui & Gouveia, Borges & Pinho, Carlos, 2013. "A real options approach to labour shifts planning under different service level targets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 182-189.
  61. D’Lima, Minette & Medda, Francesca, 2015. "A new measure of resilience: An application to the London Underground," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 35-46.
  62. Joost M. E. Pennings & Ale Smidts, 2003. "The Shape of Utility Functions and Organizational Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(9), pages 1251-1263, September.
  63. Gudkov, Nikolay & Ignatieva, Katja, 2021. "Electricity price modelling with stochastic volatility and jumps: An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  64. Henry L. Bryant & Michael S. Haigh, 2005. "Derivative pricing model and time‐series approaches to hedging: A comparison," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 613-641, July.
  65. Stanislav Petrasek & John Perez-Garcia & B. Bare, 2015. "Valuing forestlands with stochastic timber and carbon prices," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 232(1), pages 217-234, September.
  66. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
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  68. Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2008. "Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1991-2005, October.
  69. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 127-153, May.
  70. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.
  71. Jung Ho Park & Kwangsoo Shin, 2018. "R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
  72. Víctor Manuel García de la Vega & Antonio Ruiz Porras, 2009. "Modelos Estocásticos para el Precio Spot y del Futuro de Commodities con Alta Volatilidad y Reversión a la Media," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24.
  73. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
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