IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/sfwpfi/201512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Electricity Market Coupling and the Pricing of Transmission Rights: An Option-based Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mahringer, Steffen
  • Fuess, Roland
  • Prokopczuk, Marcel

Abstract

In liberalized electricity wholesale markets, transmission rights valuation and market design have traditionally been closely intertwined. In Europe, where transmission rights are mainly related to cross-border transactions between adjacent markets, the recent roll-out of market coupling mechanisms has even further strengthened this mutual dependence: due to the resulting improved price convergence across coupled markets, spread dynamics have become more intricate and complex to model, which cannot generally be achieved with classic reduced-form approaches commonly used for transmission rights valuation. In this paper, we instead propose a fundamental model for electricity prices in two coupled markets, which adequately reflects the current institutional framework for cross-border trade in Europe. Based on this setting, we analyze in detail how transmission rights can be valued as spread options on the spot prices derived from this framework, and illustrate how related pricing implications compare against the standard Margrabe benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahringer, Steffen & Fuess, Roland & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity Market Coupling and the Pricing of Transmission Rights: An Option-based Approach," Working Papers on Finance 1512, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1512.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "An assessment of the Danish-German cross-border auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3369-3382, June.
    2. Cartea, Álvaro & Villaplana, Pablo, 2008. "Spot price modeling and the valuation of electricity forward contracts: The role of demand and capacity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2502-2519, December.
    3. Pirrong, Craig & Jermakyan, Martin, 2008. "The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2520-2529, December.
    4. Ren� Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "The valuation of clean spread options: linking electricity, emissions and fuels," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1951-1965, December.
    5. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    6. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    7. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    8. Derek Bunn & Georg Zachmann, 2010. "Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 243-265, June.
    9. repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:18:p:2683-2693 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11500 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Meeus, Leonardo, 2011. "Why (and how) to regulate power exchanges in the EU market integration context?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1470-1475, March.
    12. Ronald Huisman & Mehtap Kili砍, 2013. "A history of European electricity day-ahead prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2683-2693, June.
    13. Ehrenmann, Andreas & Smeers, Yves, 2005. "Inefficiencies in European congestion management proposals," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 135-152, June.
    14. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    15. Turvey, Ralph, 2006. "Interconnector economics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1457-1472, September.
    16. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    17. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    18. Kristiansen, T., 2004. "Pricing of Contracts for Difference in the Nordic market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1075-1085, June.
    19. Meeus, L. & Vandezande, L. & Cole, S. & Belmans, R., 2009. "Market coupling and the importance of price coordination between power exchanges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 228-234.
    20. Fanone, Enzo & Gamba, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 22-34.
    21. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742, Decembrie.
    22. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    23. Marckhoff, Jan & Wimschulte, Jens, 2009. "Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference: Evidence from the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 257-268, March.
    24. Wobben, Magnus & Dieckmann, Birgit & Reichmann, Oleg, 2012. "Valuation of physical transmission rights—An analysis of electricity cross-border capacities between Germany and the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-180.
    25. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
    26. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    27. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    28. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alasseur, C. & Féron, O., 2018. "Structural price model for coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 104-119.
    2. Kiesel, Rüdiger & Kusterman, Michael, 2016. "Structural models for coupled electricity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
    3. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    4. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    6. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    7. Meeus, Leonardo, 2011. "Implicit auctioning on the Kontek Cable: Third time lucky?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 413-418, May.
    8. Meeus, Leonardo, 2011. "Why (and how) to regulate power exchanges in the EU market integration context?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1470-1475, March.
    9. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
    10. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Andreas Wagner, 2014. "Residual Demand Modeling and Application to Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    14. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Tony Ware, 2017. "Polynomial processes for power prices," Papers 1710.10293, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    16. Petr Spodniak & Mikael Collan & Mari Makkonen, 2017. "On Long-Term Transmission Rights in the Nordic Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Ren� Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "The valuation of clean spread options: linking electricity, emissions and fuels," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1951-1965, December.
    18. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    19. Dmitriy O. Afanasyev & Elena A. Fedorova & Evgeniy V. Gilenko, 2021. "The fundamental drivers of electricity price: a multi-scale adaptive regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1913-1938, April.
    20. Thomas Deschatre & Olivier F'eron & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Papers 2103.16918, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transmission Rights Valuation; Fundamental Model; Multi-Market Modeling; Derivatives Pricing; Energy Market Coupling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfisgch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.