Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market
In this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After analyzing factors leading to the unobservable in other financial or commodity markets price dynamics we propose a mean reverting jump diffusion model. We fit the model to data from the Nord Pool power exchange and find that it nearly duplicates the spot price's main characteristics. The model can thus be used for risk management and pricing derivatives written on the spot electricity price.
|Date of creation:||15 Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC - PC-TEX; pages: 10 ; figures: 3 included. Appeared in "The Application of Econophysics", H. Takayasu (ed.), Springer, Tokyo, 2004, pp. 182-191.|
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- Rafal Weron & Beata Przybylowicz, 2000.
"Hurst analysis of electricity price dynamics,"
HSC Research Reports
HSC/00/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
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