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Entropy of the Nordic electricity market: anomalous scaling, spikes, and mean-reversion

Author

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  • Josep Perello
  • Miquel Montero
  • Luigi Palatella
  • Ingve Simonsen
  • Jaume Masoliver

Abstract

The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to the Nordic spot electricity market (Nord Pool). We study the waiting time statistics between consecutive spot price spikes and find it to show anomalous scaling characterized by a decaying power-law. The exponent observed in data follows a quite robust relationship with the one implied by the DEA analysis. We also in terms of the DEA revisit topics like clustering, mean-reversion and periodicities. We finally propose a GARCH inspired model but for the price itself. Models in the context of stochastic volatility processes appear under this scope to have a feasible description.

Suggested Citation

  • Josep Perello & Miquel Montero & Luigi Palatella & Ingve Simonsen & Jaume Masoliver, 2006. "Entropy of the Nordic electricity market: anomalous scaling, spikes, and mean-reversion," Papers physics/0609066, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0609066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rafal Weron & Ingve Simonsen & Piotr Wilman, 2003. "Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market," Econometrics 0303007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rafal Weron, 2001. "Measuring long-range dependence in electricity prices," Papers cond-mat/0103621, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yue Yang & Changgui Gu & Qin Xiao & Huijie Yang, 2017. "Evolution of scaling behaviors embedded in sentence series from A Story of the Stone," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Erzgräber, Hartmut & Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldívar, José-Manuel & Touchette, Hugo & Gutiérrez, Eugénio & Arrowsmith, David K., 2008. "Time series analysis and long range correlations of Nordic spot electricity market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6567-6574.
    3. Miquel Montero, 2021. "Predator–prey model for stock market fluctuations," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 29-57, January.
    4. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
    5. Qiu, Lu & Yang, Huijie, 2020. "Transfer entropy calculation for short time sequences with application to stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    6. G. Papaioannou & P. Papaioannou & N. Parliaris, 2014. "Modeling the stylized facts of wholesale system marginal price (SMP) and the impacts of regulatory reforms on the Greek Electricity Market," Papers 1401.5452, arXiv.org.
    7. Xue Pan & Lei Hou & Mutua Stephen & Huijie Yang & Chenping Zhu, 2014. "Evaluation of Scaling Invariance Embedded in Short Time Series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Escarela-Perez, R. & Espinosa-Perez, G. & Urrea, R., 2009. "Dynamics of electricity market correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2173-2188.
    9. Bigdeli, N. & Afshar, K., 2009. "Characterization of Iran electricity market indices with pay-as-bid payment mechanism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1577-1592.

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