IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1406.4275.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information

Author

Listed:
  • Takashi Kato
  • Jun Sekine
  • Hiromitsu Yamamoto

Abstract

A one-factor asset pricing model with an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process as its state variable is studied under partial information: the mean-reverting level and the mean-reverting speed parameters are modeled as hidden/unobservable stochastic variables. No-arbitrage pricing formulas for derivative securities written on a liquid asset and exponential utility indifference pricing formulas for derivative securities written on an illiquid asset are presented. Moreover, a conditionally linear filtering result is introduced to compute the pricing/hedging formulas and the Bayesian estimators of the hidden variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Kato & Jun Sekine & Hiromitsu Yamamoto, 2014. "A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information," Papers 1406.4275, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1406.4275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.4275
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schwartz, Eduardo, 1998. "Valuing long-term commodity assets," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-99.
    2. Becherer, Dirk, 2003. "Rational hedging and valuation of integrated risks under constant absolute risk aversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    4. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    5. Vicky Henderson, 2002. "Valuation Of Claims On Nontraded Assets Using Utility Maximization," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 351-373, October.
    6. Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1998. "Valuing Long-Term Commodity Assets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), Spring.
    7. Constantin Mellios & Pierre Six, 2011. "The traditional hedging model revisited with a non-observable convenience yield," Post-Print hal-00659232, HAL.
    8. Constantin Mellios & Pierre Six, 2011. "The Traditional Hedging Model Revisited with a Nonobservable Convenience Yield," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 569-593, November.
    9. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    10. Kenichiro Shiraya & Akihiko Takahashi, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of long-term futures and forward contracts by a three-factor model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1811-1826, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takashi Kato & Jun Sekine & Hiromitsu Yamamoto, 2014. "A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(2), pages 151-174, May.
    2. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013.
    3. Fouquau, Julien & Six, Pierre, 2015. "A comparison of the convenience yield and interest-adjusted basis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 142-149.
    4. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    5. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2015. "Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/95 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bastian-Pinto, Carlos & Brando, Luiz & Hahn, Warren J., 2009. "Flexibility as a source of value in the production of alternative fuels: The ethanol case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 411-422, May.
    9. Mikael Collan & Jyrki Savolainen & Pasi Luukka, 2017. "Investigating the effect of price process selection on the value of a metal mining asset portfolio," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 107-115, July.
    10. Rodriguez, J.C., 2007. "A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives," Discussion Paper 2007-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1245 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Marcos Escobar & Luis Seco, 2012. "Residual Model for Future Prices," Journal of Business Administration Research, Journal of Business Administration Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(2), pages 110-119, October.
    13. Won, Chaehwan, 2009. "Valuation of investments in natural resources using contingent-claim framework with application to bituminous coal developments in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1215-1224.
    14. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    15. Warren J. Hahn & James S. Dyer, 2011. "A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two-Factor Mean-Reverting Stochastic Processes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 220-232, September.
    16. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2274 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    19. Rodriguez, J.C., 2007. "A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives," Other publications TiSEM 7354a9fa-3202-40c1-aeb2-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Chiarella, Carl & Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2013. "Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 989-1000.
    21. Jilong Chen & Christian Ewald & Ruolan Ouyang & Sjur Westgaard & Xiaoxia Xiao, 2022. "Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 29-46, June.
    22. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.
    23. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    24. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1406.4275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.