IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v12y2012i12p1811-1826.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing and hedging of long-term futures and forward contracts by a three-factor model

Author

Listed:
  • Kenichiro Shiraya
  • Akihiko Takahashi

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the pricing and hedging efficiency of a three-factor stochastic mean reversion Gaussian model of commodity prices using oil and copper futures and forward contracts. The model is estimated using NYMEX WTI (light sweet crude oil) and LME Copper futures prices and is shown to fit the data well. Furthermore, it shows how to hedge based on a three-factor model and confirms that using three different futures contracts to hedge long-term contracts outperforms the traditional parallel hedge based on a single futures position by time series data and simulation. It also finds that the three-factor model outperforms the two-factor version with respect to the replication of actual term structures and that stochastic mean reversion models outperform constant mean reversion models in Out of Sample hedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenichiro Shiraya & Akihiko Takahashi, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of long-term futures and forward contracts by a three-factor model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1811-1826, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:12:p:1811-1826 DOI: 10.1080/14697680903341780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697680903341780
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Carree, Martin A., 2005. "Bias-Corrected Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 200-210, April.
    3. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Huang, Rongbing & Ritter, Jay R., 2009. "Testing Theories of Capital Structure and Estimating the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 237-271, April.
    5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    7. Maria Elena Bontempi, 2002. "The dynamic specification of the modified pecking order theory: Its relevance to Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1-22.
    8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    9. Bradley, Michael & Jarrell, Gregg A & Kim, E Han, 1984. " On the Existence of an Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 857-878, July.
    10. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    11. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    12. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 709-748.
    17. Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder & Stewart C. Myers, 1994. "Testing Static Trade-off Against Pecking Order Models of Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 4722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Panetta, F. & Violi, R., 1999. "Is there an Equity Premium Puzzle in Italy? A Look at Asset Returns, Consumption and Financial Structure Data Over the Last Century," Papers 353, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    19. Hahn, Jinyong & Hausman, Jerry & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2007. "Long difference instrumental variables estimation for dynamic panel models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 574-617, October.
    20. Taggart, Robert A, Jr, 1977. "A Model of Corporate Financing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1467-1484, December.
    21. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    22. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 817-858.
    23. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    24. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2003. "Testing for unit roots with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 75-89, July.
    25. Rondi, Laura & Sembenelli, Alessandro & Zanetti, Giovanni, 1994. "Is excess sensitivity of investment to financial factors constant across firms? Evidence from panel data on Italian companies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 365-383.
    26. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 1-27.
    27. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, August.
    28. Frank, Murray Z. & Goyal, Vidhan K., 2003. "Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 217-248, February.
    29. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    30. Karlsson, Sune & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 249-255, March.
    31. Antoniou, Antonios & Guney, Yilmaz & Paudyal, Krishna, 2008. "The Determinants of Capital Structure: Capital Market-Oriented versus Bank-Oriented Institutions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(01), pages 59-92, March.
    32. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
    33. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
    34. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    35. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    36. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    37. Sudipto Sarkar & Fernando Zapatero, 2003. "The Trade-off Model with Mean Reverting Earnings: Theory and Empirical Tests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 834-860, October.
    38. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    39. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    40. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
    41. Hovakimian, Armen, 2006. "Are Observed Capital Structures Determined by Equity Market Timing?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 221-243, March.
    42. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    43. Marsh, Paul, 1982. " The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-144, March.
    44. Kayhan, Ayla & Titman, Sheridan, 2007. "Firms' histories and their capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-32, January.
    45. Raymar, Steven, 1991. "A Model of Capital Structure when Earnings Are Mean-Reverting," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 327-344, September.
    46. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-136, January.
    47. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross-Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    48. MacKinnon, James G, 1994. "Approximate Asymptotic Distribution Functions for Unit-Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-176, April.
    49. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I.
    50. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    51. Jalilvand, Abolhassan & Harris, Robert S, 1984. " Corporate Behavior in Adjusting to Capital Structure and Dividend Targets: An Econometric Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 127-145, March.
    52. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    53. Peter MacKay & Gordon M. Phillips, 2005. "How Does Industry Affect Firm Financial Structure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1433-1466.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Hedging Performance on Long-dDted Crude Oil Derivatives," Research Paper Series 376, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Takashi Kato & Jun Sekine & Hiromitsu Yamamoto, 2014. "A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, pages 151-174.
    3. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Hedging Futures Options with Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 375, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Takashi Kato & Jun Sekine & Hiromitsu Yamamoto, 2014. "A One-Factor Conditionally Linear Commodity Pricing Model under Partial Information," Papers 1406.4275, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:12:p:1811-1826. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.