IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v4y2011i1p133-161d28376.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path

Author

Listed:
  • Vadhindran K. Rao

    (College of Management, Metropolitan State University,13th St & Harmon Place Minneapolis, MN 55403, USA)

Abstract

This paper considers the multiperiod hedging decision in a framework of mean-reverting spot prices and unbiased futures markets. The task is to determine the optimal hedging path, i.e., the sequence of positions in futures contracts with the objective of minimizing the variance of an uncertain future cash flow. The model is used to illustrate both hedging using a matchedmaturity futures contract and hedging by rolling over a series of nearby futures contracts. In each case, the paper derives the conditions under which a single period (myopic) strategy would be optimal as opposed to a dynamic multiperiod strategy. The results suggest that greater the market power of the hedging entity, closer the optimal strategy is to a myopic hedge. The paper also highlights the difference in the optimal hedging path when hedging is based on matched-maturity as opposed to nearby contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadhindran K. Rao, 2011. "Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:133-161:d:28376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/4/1/133/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/4/1/133/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ankirchner, Stefan & Dimitroff, Georgi & Heyne, Gregor & Pigorsch, Christian, 2012. "Futures Cross-Hedging with a Stationary Basis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1361-1395, December.
    2. Rao, Vadhindran K., 2000. "Preference-free optimal hedging using futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 223-228, February.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-375, March.
    4. Zilcha, Itzhak & Eldor, Rafael, 1991. "Exporting firm and forward markets: the multiperiod case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 108-117, March.
    5. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the optimal hedge under unbiased futures prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 385-388, March.
    6. Fishelson, Gideon, 1984. "Constraints on transactions in the futures markets for output and inputs," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 415-420, December.
    7. Breeden, Douglas T., 1984. "Futures markets and commodity options: Hedging and optimality in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 275-300, April.
    8. Stefan Ankirchner & Gregor Heyne, 2012. "Cross hedging with stochastic correlation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 17-43, January.
    9. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    10. Ming-Chih Lee & Jui-Cheng Hung, 2007. "Hedging for multi-period downside risk in the presence of jump dynamics and conditional heteroskedasticity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(18), pages 2403-2412.
    11. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    12. Ronald W. Anderson & Jean-Pierre Danthine, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(2), pages 249-266.
    13. Lien, Donald & Shaffer, David R, 2002. "Multiperiod Strip Hedging of Forward Commitments," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 345-358, June.
    14. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, July.
    15. Larry S. Karp, 1987. "Methods for Selecting the Optimal Dynamic Hedge When Production is Stochastic," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 647-657.
    16. Losq, Etienne, 1982. "Hedging with price and output uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 65-70.
    17. Guillermo Donoso, 1995. "Exporting and hedging decisions with a foward currency market: The multiperiod case," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
    18. Steve W. Martinez & Kelly D. Zering, 1992. "Optimal Dynamic Hedging Decisions for Grain Producers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(4), pages 879-888.
    19. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1999. "Analytics Underlying the Metallgesellschaft Hedge: Short Term Futures in a Multi-period Environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 195-219, May.
    20. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    21. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    22. Tomislav Vukina & James L. Anderson, 1993. "A State-Space Forecasting Approach to Optimal Intertemporal Cross-Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 416-424.
    23. Neuberger, Anthony, 1999. "Hedging Long-Term Exposures with Multiple Short-Term Futures Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 429-459.
    24. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    25. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    26. Duffie, Darrell & Jackson, Matthew O., 1990. "Optimal hedging and equilibrium in a dynamic futures market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 21-33, February.
    27. de Meza, David & von Ungern Sternberg, Thomas, 1980. "Market Structure and Optimal Stockholding: A Note," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 395-399, April.
    28. Robert J. Myers & Steven D. Hanson, 1996. "Optimal Dynamic Hedging in Unbiased Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 13-20.
    29. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lee, Cheng-few & Shrestha, Keshab, 2003. "Futures hedge ratios: a review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 433-465.
    30. Adler, Michael & Detemple, Jerome B, 1988. " On the Optimal Hedge of a Nontraded Cash Position," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 143-153, March.
    31. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    2. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2012. "Dynamic Hedging in Incomplete Markets: A Simple Solution," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1845-1896.
    3. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Combining time-varying and dynamic multi-period optimal hedging models," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 29(4), pages 471-500, December.
    4. Mellios, Constantin & Six, Pierre & Lai, Anh Ngoc, 2016. "Dynamic speculation and hedging in commodity futures markets with a stochastic convenience yield," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 493-504.
    5. Rodt, Marc & Schäfer, Klaus, 2005. "Absicherung von Strompreisrisiken mit Futures: Theorie und Empirie," Freiberg Working Papers 2005/18, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Ismael Pérez-Franco & Esteban Otto Thomasz & Gonzalo Rondinone & Agustín García-García, 2022. "Feed price risk management for sheep production in Spain: a composite future cross-hedging strategy," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 137-163, June.
    7. Katelijne A.E. Carbonez & Van Thi Tuong Nguyen & Piet Sercu, 2011. "Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(5), pages 806-834, November.
    8. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2012. "Dynamic Cross-Hedge Ratios: An Application of Copula Models," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124610, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    10. Darren Butterworth & Phil Holmes, 2005. "The Hedging Effectiveness of U.K. Stock Index Futures Contracts Using an Extended Mean Gini Approach: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid250 Contracts," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(3-4), pages 131-160, September.
    11. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1995. "Optimal Hedging Under Forward‐Looking Behaviour," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 329-342, December.
    12. Olson, Eric & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What is a better cross-hedge for energy: Equities or other commodities?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    13. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    14. Abraham Lioui & Patrice Poncet, 2000. "The Minimum Variance Hedge Ratio Under Stochastic Interest Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 658-668, May.
    15. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    16. Lim, Siew Hoon & Turner, Peter A., 2016. "Airline Fuel Hedging: Do Hedge Horizon and Contract Maturity Matter?," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 55(1), April.
    17. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Yong Sakong, 1994. "Multiperiod Production with Forward and Option Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 286-295.
    18. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
    19. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini & Steven D. Hanson, 1991. "Production, Hedging, and Speculative Decisions with Options and Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 66-74.
    20. Jahangir Sultan & Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "The effectiveness of dynamic hedging: evidence from selected European stock index futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 469-488.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:133-161:d:28376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.