IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/agrebk/qt5jp9q454.html

Methods for Selecting the Optimal Dynamic Hedge When Production is Stochastic

Author

Listed:
  • Karp, Larry

Abstract

A dynamic hedging problem with stochastic production is solved. The optimal feedback rules recognize that future hedges will be chosen optimally based on the most current information. The resulting distribution of revenue is analyzed numerically. This analysis enables the hedger to select his appropriate level of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Karp, Larry, 1986. "Methods for Selecting the Optimal Dynamic Hedge When Production is Stochastic," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5jp9q454, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt5jp9q454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5jp9q454.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Berck, 1981. "Portfolio Theory and the Demand for Futures: The Case of California Cotton," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 466-474.
    2. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 844-844.
    3. Marcus, Alan J & Modest, David M, 1984. "Futures Markets and Production Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 409-426, June.
    4. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
    5. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    6. Gershon Feder & Richard E. Just & Andrew Schmitz, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(2), pages 317-328.
    7. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Yong Sakong, 1994. "Multiperiod Production with Forward and Option Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 286-295.
    3. repec:isu:genstf:1989010108000010138 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anderson, Jock R., 2003. "Risk in rural development: challenges for managers and policy makers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 161-197.
    5. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Sadefo Kamdem Jules & Fono Louis Aimé, 2022. "Dynamic optimal hedge ratio design when price and production are stochastic with jump," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 419-428, September.
    6. Jing-Yi Lai, 2012. "An empirical study of the impact of skewness and kurtosis on hedging decisions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1827-1837, December.
    7. Tronstad, Russell, 1991. "The Effects of Firm Size and Production Cost Levels on Dynamically Optimal After-Tax Cotton Storage and Hedging Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 165-179, July.
    8. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem & Louis Aimé Fono, 2019. "Dynamic Optimal Hedge Ratio Design when Price and Production are stochastic with Jump," Working Papers hal-02417401, HAL.
    9. Tronstad, Russell, "undated". "Optimal Cash Grain Sale, Storage, and Hedging Decisions for Grain Producers: A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini & Steven D. Hanson, 1991. "Production, Hedging, and Speculative Decisions with Options and Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 66-74.
    11. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Vadhindran K. Rao, 2011. "Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    13. Frank, Deon, 1992. "Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets In South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 31(4), December.
    14. Monson, Steven J., 1991. "Accounting for yield risk in preharvest commodity pricing decisions," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000018169, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2012. "Dynamic Cross-Hedge Ratios: An Application of Copula Models," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124610, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:isu:genstf:1993010108000011461 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.
    3. repec:isu:genstf:1989010108000010138 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Falatoonzadeh, Hamid & Conner, J. Richard & Pope, Rulon D., 1985. "Risk Management Strategies To Reduce Net Income Variability For Farmers," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Yumi Oum & Shmuel S. Oren, 2010. "Optimal Static Hedging of Volumetric Risk in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 107-122, March.
    6. Pope, Rulon D. & Just, Richard E., 1996. "Empirical implementation of ex ante cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 231-249.
    7. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    8. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, March.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Haruna, Shoji, 1996. "Industry equilibrium, uncertainty, and futures markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-70.
    11. Alexander, Vickie J. & Musser, Wesley N. & Mason, George, 1986. "Futures Markets and Firm Decisions Under Price, Production, and Financial Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 39-50, December.
    12. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
    13. Ahmet Enis Kocagil, 1997. "Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125.
    14. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1995. "Optimal Hedging Under Forward‐Looking Behaviour," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 329-342, December.
    15. Bell, Peter N, 2014. "The variance-minimizing hedge with put options," MPRA Paper 62156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    17. Lence, Sergio Horacio, 1991. "Dynamic firm behavior under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010656, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Kit Pong Wong, 2003. "Forward Markets and the Behaviour of the Competitive Firm with Production Flexibility," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 303-310, July.
    19. Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-468, June.
    20. Arzu Uluc, 2018. "Stabilising House Prices: the Role of Housing Futures Trading," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 587-621, May.
    21. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.
    22. Nongnuch Tantisantiwong, 2004. "Theoretical moment restrictions of commodity prices," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 19, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    23. Broll, Udo & Welzel, Peter & Wong, Kit Pong, 2019. "Hedging and the regret theory of the competitive firm," CEPIE Working Papers 05/19, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt5jp9q454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.