IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ucbecw/6092.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Methods for selecting the optimal dynamic hedge when production is stochastic

Author

Listed:
  • Karp, Larry S.

Abstract

A dynamic hedging problem with stochastic production is solved. The optimal feedback rules recognize that future hedges will be chosen optimally based on the most current information. The resulting distribution of revenue is analyzed numerically. This analysis enables the hedger to select his appropriate level of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Karp, Larry S., 1986. "Methods for selecting the optimal dynamic hedge when production is stochastic," CUDARE Working Papers 6092, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:6092
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6092/files/wp860405.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6092?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Berck, 1981. "Portfolio Theory and the Demand for Futures: The Case of California Cotton," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 466-474.
    2. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 844-844.
    3. Marcus, Alan J & Modest, David M, 1984. "Futures Markets and Production Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 409-426, June.
    4. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
    5. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    6. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Yong Sakong, 1994. "Multiperiod Production with Forward and Option Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 286-295.
    2. Tronstad, Russell, 1991. "The Effects of Firm Size and Production Cost Levels on Dynamically Optimal After-Tax Cotton Storage and Hedging Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 165-179, July.
    3. Tronstad, Russell, 1989. "Optimal Cash Grain Sale, Storage, and Hedging Decisions for Grain Producers: A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Vadhindran K. Rao, 2011. "Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Frank, Deon, 1992. "Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets In South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 31(4), December.
    7. Monson, Steven J., 1991. "Accounting for yield risk in preharvest commodity pricing decisions," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000018169, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2012. "Dynamic Cross-Hedge Ratios: An Application of Copula Models," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124610, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini & Steven D. Hanson, 1991. "Production, Hedging, and Speculative Decisions with Options and Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(1), pages 66-74.
    10. Kim, Tae-Kyun, 1989. "The factor bias of technical change and technology adoption under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010138, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Anderson, Jock R., 2003. "Risk in rural development: challenges for managers and policy makers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 161-197.
    12. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Sadefo Kamdem Jules & Fono Louis Aimé, 2022. "Dynamic optimal hedge ratio design when price and production are stochastic with jump," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 419-428, September.
    13. Jing-Yi Lai, 2012. "An empirical study of the impact of skewness and kurtosis on hedging decisions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1827-1837, December.
    14. Nyassoke Titi Gaston Clément & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem & Louis Aimé Fono, 2019. "Dynamic Optimal Hedge Ratio Design when Price and Production are stochastic with Jump," Working Papers hal-02417401, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Jae-Gyeong, 1993. "Futures markets in an open economy," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011461, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.
    3. Kim, Tae-Kyun, 1989. "The factor bias of technical change and technology adoption under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010138, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Falatoonzadeh, Hamid & Conner, J. Richard & Pope, Rulon D., 1985. "Risk Management Strategies To Reduce Net Income Variability For Farmers," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    6. Yumi Oum & Shmuel S. Oren, 2010. "Optimal Static Hedging of Volumetric Risk in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 107-122, March.
    7. Pope, Rulon D. & Just, Richard E., 1996. "Empirical implementation of ex ante cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 231-249.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alexander, Vickie J. & Musser, Wesley N. & Mason, George, 1986. "Futures Markets And Firm Decisions Under Price, Production, And Financial Uncertainty," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    11. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-15, July.
    12. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2009. "Information Memory and Pricing Efficiency of Futures Contracts," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 191-250, May.
    13. Hernandez, Manuel A. & Torero, Máximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Benoît Sévi, 2006. "Ederington's ratio with production flexibility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8.
    15. Benninga, Simon Z. & Oosterhof, Casper M., 2004. "Hedging with forwards and puts in complete and incomplete markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    17. Haruna, Shoji, 1996. "Industry equilibrium, uncertainty, and futures markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-70.
    18. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
    19. Lioui, Abraham, 1998. "Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-81, January.
    20. Christopher B. Barrett & Christine M. Moser & Oloro V. McHugh & Joeli Barison, 2004. "Better Technology, Better Plots, or Better Farmers? Identifying Changes in Productivity and Risk among Malagasy Rice Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 869-888.
    21. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David & Goodwin, Barry K. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2005. "Effects of Decoupling on the Average and the Variability of Output," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24601, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ucbecw:6092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dabrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.