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Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage

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  • Power, Gabriel J.
  • Robinson, John R.C.

Abstract

The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been a source of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers and merchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especially given that some market movements did not appear to be justified by economic fundamentals. An emerging research literature examines the possible influence of futures traders, and particularly the non-traditional Index Traders, on the well-functioning of futures markets and underlying commodity markets. Cotton is a relatively under-studied commodity that is of particular importance for producers in the South and Southwest. To this end, this paper asks the following questions : (1) What role have (primarily long-only) Index Traders played, if we simultaneously account for important ongoing changes in cotton economic fundamentals? (2) Have seasonal and long-run patterns of convenience yield and price volatility changed during or since the commodity bull cycle? (3) How well do the data support a theory of storage model using the concept of convenience yield, and has the relationship changed with the commodity bull cycle? The results presented in this paper suggest that traditional, well-established economic relationships for cotton futures markets clearly have been disrupted during the period 2006- 2009. However, we find no direct evidence to support the claim that Index Traders are responsible for changes in prices or volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Power, Gabriel J. & Robinson, John R.C., 2009. "Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53044, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc09:53044
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.53044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colin A. Carter & Cesar L. Revoredo Giha, 2007. "The Working Curve and Commodity Storage under Backwardation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 864-872.
    2. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422.
    3. Robinson, John R.C & Fuller, Steven C. & Lai, Pei-Chun & Vadali, Sharada, 2009. "Impact of Global Recession in Containerized Agricultural Shipments: A Case Study of Texas Cotton," 50th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Portland, Oregon, March 16-18, 2009 207600, Transportation Research Forum.
    4. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    5. Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip & Good, Darrel L. & Kunda, Eugene L., 2008. "Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barham, E. Hart Bise & Robinson, John R.C. & Richardson, James W. & Rister, M. Edward, 2011. "Mitigating Cotton Revenue Risk Through Irrigation, Insurance, and Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1-12, November.
    2. Apperson, George P., 2014. "Agricultural Commodity Futures Market Volatility: A Case for Punctuated Equilibrium," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196760, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Apperson, George P., 2017. "Agricultural Commodity Futures Price Volatility: A Market Regulatory Policy Study," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258210, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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