Mean-Variance optimization of power generation portfolios under uncertainty in the merit order
In this article we discuss welfare-optimal capacity allocation of different electricity generation technologies available for serving system demand. While the classical peak load pricing theory derives the efficient portfolio structure from a deterministic marginal production cost curve ("merit order"), we investigate in particular the implications of possible reversals in the merit order â€”sometimes also referred to as fuel switch risks- induced by uncertain operating costs. We propose a static, non-convex optimization model combining the classic peak load pricing model with elements of mean-variance portfolio (MVP) theory and analytically discuss possible solution cases and important optimality properties. We examine the approach in a case study on the efficient structure of generation portfolios consisting of CCGT and hard coal technologies in Germany. With special emphasis, we study the emergence of overcapacities (exceeding maximal demand) in efficient portfolios and show that diversification is not beneficial per-se. The results show that the efficient technology mix may be significantly impacted by a risk for reversals in the merit order. Therefore, our findings support the importance of considering this risk factor especially with long-term investment horizons. The model is applicable to various investment problems related to production of nonstorable goods under price uncertainty of input factors. Similar problems can e.g. be found in transportation systems or in the process industry.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2011|
|Date of revision:||Oct 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitätsstrasse 12, 45117 Essen|
Phone: 0201 - 183 3633
Fax: 0201 - 183 2292
Web page: http://www.ewl.wiwi.uni-due.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mohammadi, Hassan, 2009. "Electricity prices and fuel costs: Long-run relations and short-run dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 503-509, May.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Fleten, S.-E. & Maribu, K.M. & Wangensteen, I., 2007.
"Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 803-815.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Maribu, Karl Magnus & Wangensteen, Ivar, 2005. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Crew, Michael A & Fernando, Chitru S & Kleindorfer, Paul R, 1995. "The Theory of Peak-Load Pricing: A Survey," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 215-48, November.
- Gotham, Douglas & Muthuraman, Kumar & Preckel, Paul & Rardin, Ronald & Ruangpattana, Suriya, 2009. "A load factor based mean-variance analysis for fuel diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 249-256, March.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1998.
"The long-run evolution of energy prices,"
WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Malte Sunderkoetter & Christoph Weber, 2009. "Valuing fuel diversification in optimal investment policies for electricity generation portfolios," EWL Working Papers 0904, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Nov 2009.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:1105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andreas Fritz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.