Optimal Oil Extraction as a multiple Real Option
We study optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option appraoch. Extracting a barrel of oil is similar to exercising a call option and optimal strategies lead to deferring production when oil prices are low and when volatility is high. We sow that, in theory, the net present alue ofa country's oil reserves is increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production decisions are made conditional on oil prices. We also show that the marginal value ofaditional capacity is higher for countries with bigger resources and longer production horizons. We apply the model to Brazil and the U>A>E> in order to pin down two points of the global supply curve.
|Date of creation:||2011|
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