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Production phase and ultimate pit limit design under commodity price uncertainty

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  • Chatterjee, Snehamoy
  • Sethi, Manas Ranjan
  • Asad, Mohammad Waqar Ali

Abstract

Open pit mine design optimization under uncertainty is one of the most critical and challenging tasks in the mine planning process. This paper describes the implementation of a minimum cut network flow algorithm for the optimal production phase and ultimate pit limit design under commodity price or market uncertainty. A new smoothing splines algorithm with sequential Gaussian simulation generates multiple commodity price scenarios, and a computationally efficient stochastic framework accommodates the joint representation and processing of the mining block economic values that result from these commodity price scenarios. A case study at an existing iron mining operation demonstrates the performance of the proposed method, and a comparison with conventional deterministic approach shows a higher cumulative metal production coupled with a 48% increase in the net present value (NPV) of the operation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Snehamoy & Sethi, Manas Ranjan & Asad, Mohammad Waqar Ali, 2016. "Production phase and ultimate pit limit design under commodity price uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(2), pages 658-667.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:248:y:2016:i:2:p:658-667 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dohnal, Mirko & Doubravsky, Karel, 2016. "Equationless and equation-based trend models of prohibitively complex technological and related forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 297-304.
    2. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    3. Zhang, Jian & Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G., 2017. "A dynamic-material-value-based decomposition method for optimizing a mineral value chain with uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 617-625.
    4. Dohnal, Mirko, 2016. "Complex biofuels related scenarios generated by qualitative reasoning under severe information shortages: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 676-684.

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