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Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case

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  • Trond Døskeland

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Abstract

This paper develops a simple strategic asset allocation model for a country with non-tradable assets and liabilities. Contemporaneous correlation does not capture the long-term relationship between the non-tradable items and the financial assets. I apply cointegration and duration matching to better identify the long-term relationship. The model is applied to the case of Norway. Simulations suggest that Norway should implement a strategy which entails a higher proportion (than today’s strategy) invested in stocks. Although the new strategy is superior in several criteria and as Norway reforms its social security system, there is still considerable risk that Norway will fail to meet its liabilities. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Trond Døskeland, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 167-201, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:167-201 DOI: 10.1007/s11408-007-0044-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "Why should older people invest less in stock than younger people?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 11-23.
    3. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
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    6. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    7. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    8. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    9. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-180, March.
    10. Rudolf, Markus & Ziemba, William T., 2004. "Intertemporal surplus management," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 975-990, February.
    11. Enrico Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2006. "Making prospect theory fit for finance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 339-360, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic asset allocation; Social security system; Public pensions; G11; H55;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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